{"id":168422,"date":"2019-03-29T06:00:02","date_gmt":"2019-03-29T11:00:02","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/csinewsnow.com\/?p=168422"},"modified":"2019-03-29T08:23:32","modified_gmt":"2019-03-29T13:23:32","slug":"hydrologic-update-on-thaw-melt-conditions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/csinewsnow.com\/?p=168422","title":{"rendered":"Hydrologic Update on Thaw-Melt conditions"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignleft size-medium wp-image-19202\" src=\"http:\/\/csinewsnow.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/05\/WaterI94May19-300x224.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"224\" srcset=\"http:\/\/csinewsnow.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/05\/WaterI94May19-300x224.jpg 300w, http:\/\/csinewsnow.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/05\/WaterI94May19-233x175.jpg 233w, http:\/\/csinewsnow.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/05\/WaterI94May19.jpg 445w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/>Hydrologic Outlook<br \/>\nNational Weather Service Grand Forks ND<br \/>\n117 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2019<\/p>\n<p>&#8230;FAVORABLE THAW\/MELT CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK&#8230;MONITORING POTENTIAL WEATHER SYSTEM MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>A slow and gentle melt continues across the Red River basin due to<br \/>\nfavorable temperatures and dry weather conditions.<\/p>\n<p>Overall flood risk update&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>Near perfect thaw\/melt conditions thus far this spring have<br \/>\npotentially allowed for a reduced flood threat. If conditions in the<br \/>\nnext several weeks continue to follow this pattern (slow melting<br \/>\nduring the day with some refreezing at night and dry weather<br \/>\nconditions), most locations can expect to see river levels peak<br \/>\nfrom snowmelt in the 75% to 95% range of the probabilistic<br \/>\nguidance issued March 15th.<\/p>\n<p>However, peak river levels will still be contingent upon future<br \/>\nprecipitation. If significant precipitation happens to occur<br \/>\n(especially concurrent with peak snowmelt rises), river levels<br \/>\nwill be prone to reaching higher levels, likely above the 50%<br \/>\nstage levels of the March 15th guidance.<\/p>\n<p>The James River at LaMoure is currently at 7.5 feet and has risen around six inches in the past week, with a 50 percent chance the river will reach minor flood stage of 14 feet at LaMoure and a 5 percent chance it will reach major flood stage of 18 feet.<\/p>\n<p>North of Jamestown the James River basin Jamestown and Pipestem dams shows a normal to slightly above normal chance of overland and small stream flooding.<\/p>\n<p>South of the dams \u00a0includes a well above normal chance of overland flooding.<\/p>\n<p>The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers\u00a0 still forecasts a combined release from Jamestown and Pipestem dams of 750 cfs, \u00a0below levels that would action for flood protection in Jamestown.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/water.weather.gov\/ahps2\/hydrograph.php?wfo=bis&amp;gage=jmsn8&amp;view=1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1\">James River level through Jamestown.<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/water.weather.gov\/ahps2\/hydrograph.php?wfo=fgf&amp;gage=vcrn8&amp;view=1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1\">Sheyenne River Level Though Valley City<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/waterdata.usgs.gov\/nd\/nwis\/uv?site_no=05057500\">Lake Ashtabula Level<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Current conditions&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>Temperatures warmed into the mid to upper 40s across the far<br \/>\nsouthern Red River Valley and into west central Minnesota on<br \/>\nWednesday. This warmup allowed for more rapid snowmelt and<br \/>\nassociated runoff across this area, resulting in the<br \/>\nWahpeton\/Breckenridge area rising above flood stage and numerous<br \/>\nroad closures due to overland flooding across portions of west<br \/>\ncentral Minnesota.<\/p>\n<p>Across the remainder of the southern basin, river conditions remain<br \/>\nmostly ice covered with some ponding of water on streams and rivers<br \/>\nand in fields and ditches. Snow cover across this area is rapidly<br \/>\ndecreasing while the top layer of the ground is slowly warming and<br \/>\nmay now be capable of soaking up some of this moisture.<\/p>\n<p>For the northern half of the basin where it hasn`t been as warm, the<br \/>\nsnow cover is gradually decreasing but rivers remain largely ice<br \/>\ncovered.<\/p>\n<p>Future conditions&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>A roller coaster of temperatures is expected to continue through the<br \/>\nend of this week and into the first half of next week. Temperatures<br \/>\non Friday are expected to once again warm into the 40s for much of<br \/>\nthe basin. These temperatures will continue to decrease any<br \/>\nremaining snowpack across the far southern basin. However, the Corps<br \/>\nof Engineers has temporarily reduced outflows from area reservoirs<br \/>\nto slow down\/reduce rises at Wahpeton\/Breckenridge and locations<br \/>\nfurther downstream.<\/p>\n<p>Runoff will be slowed even further on Saturday as colder air pushes<br \/>\ninto the region and temperatures top out only around the freezing<br \/>\nmark. The roller coaster will continue heading into next week as<br \/>\nMonday and Tuesday look to bring a brief warm up before once again<br \/>\ndipping back down by midweek.<\/p>\n<p>Overall quiet weather conditions will persist into early next week.<br \/>\nA weak disturbance looks to bring minor precipitation chances to the<br \/>\nnorthern basin on Friday but amounts will be minimal. Thereafter,<br \/>\ndry conditions will prevail through the weekend heading into early<br \/>\nnext week.<\/p>\n<p>Lastly, computer models do depict a system potentially targeting the<br \/>\nPlains around midweek next week. However, it is much too far into<br \/>\nthe future for any specific locations or precipitation amounts. Our<br \/>\narea has the potential to experience this system with a mix of<br \/>\nweather types (rain, snow, etc.). On the other hand, this system<br \/>\nmay miss our area completely with little to no precipitation. Stay<br \/>\ntuned to future weather forecasts regarding this system and its<br \/>\nimpact on this year`s flood potential.<\/p>\n<p>Next outlook&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>There will be no additional probabilistic outlooks issued this<br \/>\nspring as we are now experiencing more widespread melting and the<br \/>\nissuance of deterministic forecasts. However, an updated thaw<br \/>\nprogress statement will be issued on Monday, April 1st regarding the<br \/>\nstatus of the snowmelt, forecast weather conditions and the impacts<br \/>\non future flood potential.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Hydrologic Outlook National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 117 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2019 &#8230;FAVORABLE THAW\/MELT CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK&#8230;MONITORING POTENTIAL WEATHER SYSTEM MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK&#8230; A slow and gentle melt continues across the Red River basin due to favorable temperatures and [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[35,16],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-168422","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-state","category-weathernews"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/csinewsnow.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/168422","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/csinewsnow.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/csinewsnow.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/csinewsnow.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/csinewsnow.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=168422"}],"version-history":[{"count":8,"href":"http:\/\/csinewsnow.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/168422\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":168479,"href":"http:\/\/csinewsnow.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/168422\/revisions\/168479"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/csinewsnow.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=168422"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/csinewsnow.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=168422"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/csinewsnow.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=168422"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}