{"id":270540,"date":"2023-03-24T10:34:55","date_gmt":"2023-03-24T15:34:55","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/csinewsnow.com\/?p=270540"},"modified":"2023-03-29T07:58:48","modified_gmt":"2023-03-29T12:58:48","slug":"nws-flood-potential-outlook-for-north-dakota-this-spring","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/csinewsnow.com\/?p=270540","title":{"rendered":"NWS Sping Flood Potential Outlook for ND"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<pre class=\"wp-block-preformatted\">...<strong>Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Update<\/strong>...\nThis Flood and Water Resources Outlook is for the<strong> James<\/strong> and Missouri\nriver basins of North Dakota, covering the period of 25 March\nthrough 23 June, 2023. This outlook is an update to the Spring Flood\nand Water Resources Outlook. \n\nGoing forward, the National Weather Service will go back to the routine monthly issuance of the flood probabilities on, or near, the fourth Thursday of every month. The following message has four sections. The first provides some text on\nthe highlights of this outlook and conditions affecting the local\nhydrology. The second section gives the current and historical risks\nof flooding as determined by the Ensemble Streamflow Forecast model\nof the National Weather Service. The third section gives the\ncurrent  probabilities for reaching flood stage at the listed\nforecast locations. And finally, the fourth section covers the risk\nof the river sites falling below the listed stages.\n\n...Flood Outlook Highlights...\nA persistent cold and wet pattern over the past couple of weeks has\ncontinued to add Snow-Water Equivalent (SWE) across much of North\nDakota. Up to another inch of SWE has been added in a wide swath\nfrom roughly Williston to Minot and down through the James River\nBasin, with lesser amounts in the southwest quarter of the state.\n\nThe risk of flooding has changed somewhat for a number of locations.\nIn particular, the Knife River and Spring Creek basins are\nconsidered slightly above normal due to an increase in SWE over the\npast month. Others, such as Beaver and Apple creeks are somewhat\nbelow normal due to the warm and dry soils even though they have\nreceived fair amounts of SWE recently, but this has been somewhat\noffset by earlier melting that had taken place.\n\nAcross the James River Basin, including Pipestem Creek, modeled\nrisks above Jamestown and Pingree and Grace City are below normal.\nAgain, this is due to the exceptionally warm and dry soils under the\nsnowpack. South of I-94, flood risk rises due to some of the highest\nSWE content in the state.\n\nThe Little Missouri river is starting to show signs of runoff\narriving in North Dakota from the upper parts of its watershed, but\nthus far runoff has been minimal.\n\nIn general, the dry and warm soils are still expected to\nsubstantially reduce runoff from melting snow under all but the most\nextreme of melt conditions, especially a rain on snow scenario. The\nregion remains in a persistent pattern of below normal temperatures\nand all weather forecast models suggest this will continue into\nApril. However, the closer we get to April and beyond, the greater\nthe chance of seeing a rapid change in temperatures with daily highs\npotentially well above freezing.\n\nAll that being said, one should remember that while the region is\nnearing the end of the snow accumulation season, overall\nprecipitation trends upward as we go through March and into April.\n\nThese flood risks will be updated on, or about, April 27th as a part\nof the routine release of the probabilistic Flood and Water\nResources Outlook.\n\n...Missouri and Yellowstone Rivers...\nSnowpack and SWE values remain near normal across the majority of\nthe Missouri and Yellowstone basins in Montana. However, due to last\nyear`s drought, runoff from the upper basins is expected to be\nsomewhat below normal due to the dry soils. Accordingly, flood risks\nalong the Missouri and Yellowstone Rivers above Lake Sakakawea\nshould be considered near normal. This would include the risk of\nhigh water due to ice jams. In fact, the Yellowstone River is now\nexperiencing runoff in western Montana and ice is already starting\nto move in the Billings to Miles City stretch of the river.\n\nIn the event of abnormally high spring runoff above Garrison Dam,\nLake Sakakawea is well below normal for this time of year and has\nabove normal storage available for any excess runoff. Below Garrison\nDam, runoff is not expected to be enough to create flood problems\ndue to high flow from the tributaries. However, there is always a\nslight chance of high water in the event of a rapid melt resulting\nin an ice jam if the tributaries were to discharge their ice ahead\nof the Missouri River opening up through the Bismarck\/Mandan area.\nThe Missouri River is now widely open from Garrison Dam on down\nthrough about 8-10 miles south of Washburn. It will likely take at\nleast another week for the Missouri River near Bismarck to lose its\nice.\n\n...Snowpack Conditions...\nThe snowpack has two distinct layers or components to it right now.\nThere is the snow\/ice that was received early in the winter that\nunderwent some melting and consolidation during a warm period of\nFebruary. This part of the snowpack now more closely resembles\nporous ice and is more resistant to melting than freshly received\nsnow. The remaining part of the snowpack is snow received largely\nover the past several weeks. This relatively new and less\nconsolidated snow is now relatively easy to melt on sunny days even\nwith temperatures in the mid-20s.\n\nSnowpack across the Missouri and James River basins remains thinnest\nin the western quarter of the state, and increases as one looks\nfarther east. SWE content between one and slightly over two inches\nis common, with locally higher amounts west of a line from Williston\non down through Dickinson and Lemmon, South Dakota. East of that\nline, SWE rises rapidly as one gets towards the Missouri River with\nSWE content between three and four inches being common, with locally\nup to five inches. East of the Missouri River, SWE of around four\nand a half inches is common from Garrison on down through Bismarck\nand where the Missouri River enters South Dakota. Going farther east\ninto the Prairie Pothole Region and the James River Basin, five\ninches of SWE is common, but there are fairly large areas with\nbetween six and eight inches of water content in the snowpack.\n\n...Current Drought Conditions...\nThe snowy winter has resulted in widespread improvements across\nNorth Dakota with regard to drought designations. However, D0\n(Unusually Dry) up through D1 (Moderate) drought remains in place.\nThe trend has been towards improvement and is likely to continue.\n\n...Reservoirs and Natural Wetlands...\nWith only a few exceptions all man-made reservoirs, livestock dams,\nand natural wetlands are at, or below, their normal water levels for\nthis time of year.\n\n...Soil Conditions...\nSoils across the basin are quite dry. Along with the soils being\ndry, the insulating effect of the early snow has kept the soils\nunder the snow warmer than one would expect based on the winter\nwe`ve had this year. These warm and dry soils will allow\ninfiltration of rainfall and meltwater from the spring snowmelt\nseason under all but the most extreme of melt conditions.\n\n...Weather Outlook...\nIn the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks, a cooler and wetter than normal\nweather pattern is favored. Importantly though, cooler than normal\ntemperatures at this time of year includes weather patterns with\nabove freezing temperatures as the average daily high temperature in\nthe Bismarck area for April 1st is around 50 degrees. Looking at the\nweeks 3-4 outlooks (1-14 April), the cooler than normal pattern\nremains favored, while below normal precipitation is favored. When\nlooking at the one-month outlooks, the loss of La Nina seems to have\nresulted in the equal chances designation for above normal, near\nnormal, or below normal temperature and precipitation for the\noverall month of April. Lastly, the three-month outlooks for April,\nMay, and June combined  again favors a below normal temperature\noutcome while retaining the equal chances designation for\nprecipitation.\n\n...Ice Conditions...\nAll small lakes and wetlands are covered with ice of variable\nthickness. Lakes with substantial snow cover are likely to have\nthinner ice due to the insulating effect of the deeper snow.\n\nIn Table 1 below, the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal\nprobabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stage\nare listed for the valid time period.\n\nCS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category\nbased on current conditions.\n\nHS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category\nbased on historical or normal conditions.\n\nWhen the value of CS is greater than HS...the probability of\nexceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is\nless than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower\nthan normal.<\/pre>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&#8230;Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Update&#8230; This Flood and Water Resources Outlook is for the James and Missouri river basins of North Dakota, covering the period of 25 March through 23 June, 2023. This outlook is an update to the Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook. Going forward, the [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":270541,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[14,16],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-270540","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-jamestown","category-weathernews"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/csinewsnow.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/270540","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/csinewsnow.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/csinewsnow.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/csinewsnow.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/csinewsnow.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=270540"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"http:\/\/csinewsnow.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/270540\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":270553,"href":"http:\/\/csinewsnow.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/270540\/revisions\/270553"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/csinewsnow.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/270541"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/csinewsnow.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=270540"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/csinewsnow.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=270540"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/csinewsnow.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=270540"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}