{"id":31197,"date":"2013-11-01T16:36:56","date_gmt":"2013-11-01T21:36:56","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/csinewsnow.com\/?p=31197"},"modified":"2013-11-01T16:37:05","modified_gmt":"2013-11-01T21:37:05","slug":"flood-and-water-resources-outlook","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/csinewsnow.com\/?p=31197","title":{"rendered":"Flood And Water Resources Outlook"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u00a0
\n\u00a0\"reservoir2009\"<\/a>\u00a0PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
\n\u00a0NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
\n\u00a0ISSUED\u00a0 WED OCT 30, 2013<\/strong>
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0…FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK…
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0THIS PROBABILISTIC FLOOD OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MISSOURI AND JAMES RIVER
\n\u00a0BASINS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA…COVERING THE TIME PERIOD
\n\u00a0OF OCTOBER THROUGH LATE DECEMBER.
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE HAS THREE SECTIONS…THE FIRST PROVIDES SOME
\n\u00a0TEXT ON HIGHLIGHTS OF THIS PRODUCT AND CONDITIONS AFFECTING LOCAL
\n\u00a0HYDROLOGY. THE SECOND GIVES THE CURRENT AND NORMAL\/HISTORICAL
\n\u00a0CHANCES OF RIVER LOCATIONS REACHING THEIR MINOR…MODERATE…AND
\n\u00a0MAJOR FLOOD CATEGORY. THE FINAL SECTION GIVES THE CURRENT CHANCES
\n\u00a0OF RIVER LOCATIONS RISING ABOVE LISTED RIVER STAGES.
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0…FLOOD OUTLOOK OVERVIEW HIGHLIGHTS…
\n\u00a0THE RISK OF FLOODING DURING THIS TIME OF YEAR IS QUITE LOW.
\n\u00a0HOWEVER…WHILE NOT INCLUDED IN THE BELOW TABULAR DATA…EARLY WINTER
\n\u00a0IS A TIME OF THE YEAR WHEN ICE FORMATION CAN PRODUCE UNUSUALLY HIGH
\n\u00a0WATER. THIS WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY CAUSE OF ANY FLOODING DURING
\n\u00a0THE VALID PERIOD OF LATE OCTOBER THROUGH LATE JANUARY…ESPECIALLY
\n\u00a0ON THE MISSOURI RIVER.
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0…CURRENT CONDITIONS…
\n\u00a0THE UNUSUALLY WET FALL HAS LEFT THE REGION WITH SOME OF THE HIGHEST
\n\u00a0SOIL MOISTURE LEVELS IN RECENT YEARS. THIS ALSO PRODUCES STRONG
\n\u00a0BASEFLOW INTO LOCAL STREAMS AND RIVERS…SUGGESTING THEY WILL
\n\u00a0EVENTUALLY ICE OVER AT HIGHER THAN NORMAL LEVELS. ALONG WITH THE
\n\u00a0HIGH SOIL MOISTURE…WETLANDS ARE ALSO AT OR ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
\n\u00a0FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0…WEATHER OUTLOOK…
\n\u00a0IN THE SHORTER 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS…THE COOLER THAN
\n\u00a0NORMAL WEATHER IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE WITH NEAR NORMAL TO ABOVE
\n\u00a0NORMAL PRECIPITATION. A NEUTRAL EL NINO SOUTHERN OSCILLATION
\n\u00a0PROVIDES LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLIMATE EXPECTATIONS FOR THE COMING
\n\u00a0WINTER. THIS LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT CLIMATE SIGNAL PUTS THE REGION
\n\u00a0IN THE EQUAL CHANCES CATEGORY FOR ABOVE NORMAL…NORMAL…OR BELOW
\n\u00a0NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION.
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0…SUMMARY OF HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS…
\n\u00a0THE ABNORMALLY HIGH SOIL MOISTURE AND WETLANDS SUGGEST A GREATER RISK
\n\u00a0OF PROBLEMATIC HIGH WATER COME NEXT SPRING AS FROZEN WET SOILS ARE
\n\u00a0MUCH LESS PERMEABLE THAN COLD DRY SOILS. HOWEVER…THIS IS ONLY ONE
\n\u00a0OF SEVERAL RISK FACTORS THAT WILL EVENTUALLY DICTATE SNOWMELT RUNOFF
\n\u00a0NEXT SPRING. EVENTUAL WATER CONTENT OF THE SNOWPACK AND MELT CONDITIONS
\n\u00a0WILL REMAIN UNCERTAIN UNTIL WE ARE MUCH CLOSER TO SPRING.
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0…LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC RIVER OUTLOOK BY FLOOD CATEGORY…
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0THE TABLE BELOW GIVES BOTH THE CURRENT CHANCES (CS) AND THE
\n\u00a0NORMAL\/HISTORICAL CHANCES (HS) FOR EXCEEDING THE MINOR…MODERATE
\n\u00a0AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES AT THE RIVER FORECAST POINT LOCATIONS DURING
\n\u00a0THE VALID PERIOD OF THIS OUTLOOK.
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 JAMES AND MISSOURI RIVER BASINS
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR…MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 FROM\u00a0 10\/26\/2013 TO 1\/24\/2014 Z
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0TABLE 1\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 : CHANCES OF EXCEEDING FLOOD
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 : CATEGORY IN PERCENT (%)
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 CATEGORICAL\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 :
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 FLOOD STAGES (FT)\u00a0 :\u00a0 MINOR\u00a0\u00a0 MODERATE\u00a0 MAJOR
\n\u00a0LOCATION\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 MINOR\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 MOD\u00a0\u00a0 MAJOR :\u00a0 CS HS\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 CS HS\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 CS HS
\n\u00a0——–\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 —— —— —— : — —\u00a0 — —\u00a0 — —
\n\u00a0LITTLE MUDDY CREEK…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 WILLISTON\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 10.0\u00a0\u00a0 12.0\u00a0\u00a0 14.0 :\u00a0 5\u00a0 5\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0 5\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0 5
\n\u00a0LITTLE MISSOURI RIVER…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 MARMARTH\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 18.0\u00a0\u00a0 23.0\u00a0\u00a0 30.0 :\u00a0 5\u00a0 5\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0 5\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0 5
\n\u00a0\u00a0 MEDORA\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 15.0\u00a0\u00a0 18.0\u00a0\u00a0 20.0 :\u00a0 5\u00a0 5\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0 5\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0 5
\n\u00a0\u00a0 WATFORD CITY\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 20.0\u00a0\u00a0 24.0\u00a0\u00a0 30.0 :\u00a0 5\u00a0 5\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0 5\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0 5
\n\u00a0KNIFE RIVER…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 MANNING\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 15.0\u00a0\u00a0 17.0\u00a0\u00a0 20.0 :\u00a0 5\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0 5\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0 5
\n\u00a0SPRING CREEK…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 ZAP\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 14.0\u00a0\u00a0 18.0\u00a0\u00a0 20.0 :\u00a0 5\u00a0\u00a0 6\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0 5
\n\u00a0KNIFE RIVER…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 HAZEN\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 21.0\u00a0\u00a0 24.0\u00a0\u00a0 25.0 :\u00a0 5\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0 5\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0 5
\n\u00a0HEART RIVER…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 MANDAN\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 17.0\u00a0\u00a0 23.0\u00a0\u00a0 28.0 :\u00a0 5\u00a0 5\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0 5\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0 5
\n\u00a0APPLE CREEK…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 MENOKEN\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 15.0\u00a0\u00a0 16.0\u00a0\u00a0 17.0 :\u00a0 5\u00a0 5\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0 5\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0 5
\n\u00a0CANNONBALL RIVER…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 REGENT\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 22.0\u00a0\u00a0 24.0\u00a0\u00a0 26.0 :\u00a0 5\u00a0 5\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0 5\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0 5
\n\u00a0CEDAR CREEK…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 RALEIGH\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 12.0\u00a0\u00a0 14.0\u00a0\u00a0 16.0 :\u00a0 5\u00a0 5\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0 5\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0 5
\n\u00a0CANNONBALL RIVER…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 BREIEN\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 10.0\u00a0\u00a0 20.0\u00a0\u00a0 23.0 :\u00a0 5\u00a0 5\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0 5\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0 5
\n\u00a0BEAVER CREEK…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 LINTON\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 9.0\u00a0\u00a0 11.0\u00a0\u00a0 13.0 :\u00a0 5\u00a0 5\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0 5\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0 5
\n\u00a0JAMES RIVER…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 GRACE CITY\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 12.0\u00a0\u00a0 14.0\u00a0\u00a0 15.0 :\u00a0 5\u00a0 5\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0 5\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0 5
\n\u00a0PIPESTEM CREEK…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 PINGREE\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 9.0\u00a0\u00a0 11.0\u00a0\u00a0 13.0 :\u00a0 5\u00a0 5\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0 5\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0 5
\n\u00a0JAMES RIVER…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 LAMOURE\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 14.0\u00a0\u00a0 16.0\u00a0\u00a0 18.0 :\u00a0 5\u00a0 5\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0 5\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0 5
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0LEGEND:
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 CS\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (OUTLOOK FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS)
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 HS\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 HISTORICAL SIMULATION\u00a0 ( ”\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 ”\u00a0 NORMAL\u00a0 CONDITIONS)
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 FT\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 FEET ABOVE GAGE ZERO DATUM
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0…LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK BY RIVER STAGE…
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0THE TABLE BELOW GIVES THE CURRENT 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT CHANCES FOR
\n\u00a0EXCEEDING RIVER STAGES AT THE RIVER FORECAST POINT LOCATIONS DURING
\n\u00a0THE VALID PERIOD OF THIS OUTLOOK.
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0EXAMPLE: DURING THE VALID TIME OF THIS OUTLOOK…THERE IS A
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR THE LITTLE MUDDY CREEK AT WILLISTON
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 TO RISE ABOVE 4.6 FEET AND ONLY A 10 PERCENT CHANCE THAT
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 IT WILL RISE ABOVE 7.3 FEET.
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 JAMES AND MISSOURI RIVER BASINS
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 PROBABILITIES FOR EXCEEDING LISTED RIVER STAGES
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 FROM
\n\u00a0TABLE 2
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0LOCATION\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 95%\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 90%\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 75%\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 50%\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 25%\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 10%\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 05%
\n\u00a0——–\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 —— —— —— —— —— —— ——
\n\u00a0LITTLE MUDDY CREEK…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 WILLISTON\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 4.6\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 4.6\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 4.6\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 4.6\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 5.5\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 7.3\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 8.7
\n\u00a0LITTLE MISSOURI RIVER…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 MARMARTH\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2.4\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2.4\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2.4\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 3.0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 4.0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 5.1\u00a0\u00a0 13.5
\n\u00a0\u00a0 MEDORA\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 3.3\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 3.3\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 3.3\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 3.4\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 4.5\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 8.4\u00a0\u00a0 15.4
\n\u00a0\u00a0 WATFORD CITY\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.5\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.5\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.5\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.5\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.6\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 7.3\u00a0\u00a0 13.1
\n\u00a0KNIFE RIVER…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 MANNING\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 6.5\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 6.5\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 6.5\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 6.5\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 7.8\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 9.1\u00a0\u00a0 13.1
\n\u00a0SPRING CREEK…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 ZAP\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 5.2\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 5.2\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 5.2\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 5.2\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 7.0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 8.6\u00a0\u00a0 11.6
\n\u00a0KNIFE RIVER…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 HAZEN\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2.2\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2.2\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2.2\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2.2\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 5.4\u00a0\u00a0 10.5\u00a0\u00a0 19.2
\n\u00a0HEART RIVER…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 MANDAN\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 3.2\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 3.2\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 3.2\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 3.2\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 3.8\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 7.1\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 9.0
\n\u00a0APPLE CREEK…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 MENOKEN\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 5.4\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 5.4\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 5.4\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 5.4\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 7.2\u00a0\u00a0 13.1\u00a0\u00a0 14.4
\n\u00a0CANNONBALL RIVER…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 REGENT\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 5.0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 5.0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 5.3\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 6.1\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 6.5\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 7.1\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 7.4
\n\u00a0CEDAR CREEK…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 RALEIGH\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2.4\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2.4\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2.4\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2.6\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 3.5\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 4.0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 6.9
\n\u00a0CANNONBALL RIVER…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 BREIEN\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 4.2\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 4.2\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 4.2\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 5.0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 6.6\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 7.2\u00a0\u00a0 10.0
\n\u00a0BEAVER CREEK…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 LINTON\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 4.6\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 4.6\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 4.6\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 4.6\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 5.9\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 6.2\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 7.0
\n\u00a0JAMES RIVER…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 GRACE CITY\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 4.7\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 4.7\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 4.7\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 4.7\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 4.7\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 4.8\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 5.4
\n\u00a0PIPESTEM CREEK…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 PINGREE\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 5.1\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 5.1\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 5.1\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 5.1\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 5.1\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 5.3\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 5.8
\n\u00a0JAMES RIVER…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 LAMOURE\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 7.8\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 7.8\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 7.8\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 7.8\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 7.8\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 7.9\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 8.2
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0…THE OUTLOOK PRODUCTION PROCESS…
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0THIS LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK IS BASED ON A SERIES OF PEAK
\n\u00a0RIVER LEVELS OR CRESTS TAKEN FROM THE FORECAST HYDROGRAPH RESULTS
\n\u00a0OF THE NWS ENSEMBLE STREAMFLOW PREDICTION MODEL (ESP). THE MODEL
\n\u00a0IS RUN FOR MULTIPLE SCENARIOS STARTING AT CURRENT RIVER…SNOW AND
\n\u00a0SOIL CONDITIONS AND USING 25 OR MORE YEARS OF PAST PRECIPITATION AND
\n\u00a0TEMPERATURE CONDITIONS IN THE HISTORICAL RECORD. THESE CRESTS CAN
\n\u00a0THEN BE RANKED FROM LOWEST TO HIGHEST…AND ASSIGNED AN
\n\u00a0EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITY. FOR EXAMPLE…FOR A SERIES OF 50 YEARS…
\n\u00a0THE LOWEST RANKED CREST HAS 49 CRESTS ABOVE IT AND SINCE 95 PERCENT
\n\u00a0OF THE CRESTS ARE ABOVE IT… IT IS ASSIGNED A 95 PERCENT
\n\u00a0PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDANCE (POE).
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0THE PROBABILITIES CAN BE USED FOR RISK MANAGEMENT BY COMPARING THIS
\n\u00a0YEARS CURRENT TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS WITH
\n\u00a0THOSE OF PAST YEARS USED IN THE HYDRO OUTLOOK. THEY CAN ALSO BE
\n\u00a0USED AS AN INDICATION OF THE RANGE OF CRESTS THAT MAY BE EXPECTED
\n\u00a0DURING THE VALID PERIOD OF THE OUTLOOK.
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0BY PROVIDING A RANGE OF PEAK RIVER LEVEL PROBABILITIES..THE NWS IS
\n\u00a0IS CONTRIBUTING TO THE AREAS DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES THAT HELP
\n\u00a0WITH LONG RANGE FLOOD PLANNING AND RESPONSE READINESS.\u00a0 THIS OUTLOOK
\n\u00a0IS A PART OF NOAA\/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE\/S AHPS (ADVANCED
\n\u00a0HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICES).
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0THIS OUTLOOK WAS PRODUCED USING PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES
\n\u00a0FOR THE YEARS 1978 THROUGH 2009.
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SOURCES…
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0THE AHPS LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED
\n\u00a0NEAR THE END OF EACH MONTH. HOWEVER…SPRING FLOOD AND WATER
\n\u00a0RESOURCES OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED SEVERAL TIMES DURING THE CRITICAL
\n\u00a0SPRING MELT PERIOD…USUALLY ON THURSDAYS BEGINNING IN LATE
\n\u00a0FEBRUARY OR EARLY MARCH AND ENDING IN EARLY APRIL…DEPENDING ON
\n\u00a0THE SPRING FLOODING CONDITIONS.
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0THIS OUTLOOK IS ALSO PRESENTED AS GRAPHS OF THE PROBABILITY OF STAGE
\n\u00a0EXCEEDANCE FOR THE FULL PERIOD AND FOR WEEKLY INTERVALS DURING THE
\n\u00a0PERIOD. THESE GRAPHS…TOGETHER WITH EXPLANATIONS THAT HELP IN
\n\u00a0INTERPRETING THEM ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE NWS BISMARCK AHPS WEB
\n\u00a0PAGE ON THE INTERNET AT:
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 WWW.WEATHER.GOV\/BISMARCK<\/a> OR WEATHER.GOV\/BIS
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 THEN CLICK ON THE “RIVERS AND LAKES AHPS” ON THE TAB ABOVE THE MAP
\n\u00a0\u00a0 …OR CLINK ON THE LINK IN THE BLUE-LEFT-HAND BANNER.
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0CURRENT RIVER CONDITIONS FOR ALL FORECAST POINTS WITHIN THE SOURIS
\n\u00a0RIVER BASIN ARE AVAILABLE ON OUR WEB SITE…AS WELL AS THE FORECASTS
\n\u00a0WHEN THE RIVER AT THE FORECAST POINT IS IN OR NEAR FLOOD.
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS…CONTACT THE NWS AT 701-250-4495.
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED MONTHLY THROUGHOUT
\n\u00a0THE REST OF THE YEAR DURING THE LATER PART OF THE MONTH OR AS
\n\u00a0CONDITIONS WARRANT.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK \u00a0NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND \u00a0ISSUED\u00a0 WED OCT 30, 2013 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0…FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK… \u00a0 \u00a0THIS PROBABILISTIC FLOOD OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MISSOURI AND JAMES RIVER \u00a0BASINS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA…COVERING THE TIME PERIOD \u00a0OF OCTOBER THROUGH LATE DECEMBER. \u00a0 \u00a0THE […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[14,16],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-31197","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-jamestown","category-weathernews"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/csinewsnow.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31197","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/csinewsnow.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/csinewsnow.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/csinewsnow.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/csinewsnow.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=31197"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"http:\/\/csinewsnow.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31197\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":31200,"href":"http:\/\/csinewsnow.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31197\/revisions\/31200"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/csinewsnow.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=31197"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/csinewsnow.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=31197"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/csinewsnow.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=31197"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}