{"id":11499,"date":"2013-01-25T10:08:19","date_gmt":"2013-01-25T16:08:19","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/csinewsnow.com\/?p=11499"},"modified":"2013-01-26T12:54:59","modified_gmt":"2013-01-26T18:54:59","slug":"weather-service-issues-flood-weather-outlook-early-2013","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/csinewsnow.com\/?p=11499","title":{"rendered":"Weather Service Issues Flood, Weather Outlook Early 2013"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/a>…FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK…ISSUED JAN 24, 2013, FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE…<\/p>\n

\u00a0
\n\u00a0THIS PROBABILISTIC FLOOD OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MISSOURI AND JAMES RIVER \u00a0BASINS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA…COVERING THE TIME PERIOD OF LATE JANUARY THROUGH LATE APRIL.
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE HAS THREE SECTIONS…THE FIRST PROVIDES SOME \u00a0TEXT ON HIGHLIGHTS OF THIS PRODUCT AND CONDITIONS AFFECTING LOCAL HYDROLOGY. THE SECOND GIVES THE CURRENT AND NORMAL\/HISTORICAL CHANCES OF RIVER LOCATIONS REACHING THEIR MINOR…MODERATE…AND MAJOR FLOOD CATEGORY. THE FINAL SECTION GIVES THE CURRENT CHANCE \u00a0OF RIVER LOCATIONS RISING ABOVE LISTED RIVER STAGES.
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0…FLOOD OUTLOOK OVERVIEW HIGHLIGHTS…
\n\u00a0THIS IS THE FIRST OUTLOOK OF THE YEAR COVERING THE HISTORICALLY
\n\u00a0ACTIVE FLOOD SEASON OF MID-MARCH THROUGH LATE APRIL. THE RISK OF
\n\u00a0WIDESPREAD FLOODING ASSOCIATED WITH THE EVENTUAL SPRING MELT SEASON
\n\u00a0TENDS TO BE ON THE LOW END OF NORMAL BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
\n\u00a0HOWEVER…THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF TIME LEFT FOR WINTER TO ADD TO THE
\n\u00a0CURRENT SNOWPACK AND INCREASE THE OVERALL RISK OF SPRING FLOODING.
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0…CURRENT CONDITIONS…
\n\u00a0WIDESPREAD MODERATE SNOWPACK OF 0.5 TO 1.4 INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT
\n\u00a0PUTS THE CURRENT SNOWPACK ON THE LOW END OF NORMAL. THE PAST FEW
\n\u00a0WEEKS OF MODEST SNOWFALLS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN AROUND HISTORICAL
\n\u00a0AVERAGES…BUT THE FEW WARM DAYS AND A GENERALLY DRY ATMOSPHERE HAVE
\n\u00a0KEPT THE WATER EQUIVALENT AVAILABLE ON THE GROUND RELATIVELY CONSTANT
\n\u00a0AS MOISTURE LOST TO THE ATMOSPHERE ROUGHLY EQUALS THAT RECEIVED.
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0…WEATHER OUTLOOK…
\n\u00a0THE SHORTER 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS FAVOR COLDER THAN NORMAL
\n\u00a0TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHER THAN NORMAL PRECIPITATION. SIMILARLY THE
\n\u00a0THREE MONTH PERIOD OF FEBRUARY…MARCH…AND APRIL OUTLOOKS ALSO
\n\u00a0FAVOR COOLER AND WETTER THAN NORMAL OUTCOMES. THIS WOULD SUGGEST
\n\u00a0THAT WHILE THE CURRENT SNOWPACK IS ON THE LOW END OF THE NORMAL
\n\u00a0RANGE…THE REGION IS WITHIN EASY REACH OF A MORE ROBUST SNOWPACK
\n\u00a0HEADING INTO A POSSIBLY WETTER THAN NORMAL SPRING.
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0…SUMMARY OF HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS…
\n\u00a0IN THE MOST GENERAL OF TERMS…THE SMALL LAKES AND RIVERS ARE WELL
\n\u00a0WITHIN THE LOWER END OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE EFFECTS OF
\n\u00a0THE 2011 FLOODING ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER STILL SEEM TO BE FELT
\n\u00a0ALONG THE RIVER WEST OF WILLISTON AND THAT REACH OF THE MISSOURI
\n\u00a0BETWEEN GARRISON DAM AND UPPER LAKE OAHE. RELATIVELY MINOR CHANGES IN
\n\u00a0FLOW HAVE CREATED SIGNIFICANT SWINGS IN RIVER LEVELS AT BOTH
\n\u00a0WILLISTON AND IN THE BISMARCK AREA.
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0…LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC RIVER OUTLOOK BY FLOOD CATEGORY…
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0THE TABLE BELOW GIVES BOTH THE CURRENT CHANCES (CS) AND THE
\n\u00a0NORMAL\/HISTORICAL CHANCES (HS) FOR EXCEEDING THE MINOR…MODERATE
\n\u00a0AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES AT THE RIVER FORECAST POINT LOCATIONS DURING
\n\u00a0THE VALID PERIOD OF THIS OUTLOOK.
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 JAMES AND MISSOURI RIVER BASINS
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR…MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 FROM\u00a0 1\/26\/2013 TO 4\/26\/2013 Z
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0TABLE 1\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 : CHANCES OF EXCEEDING FLOOD
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 : CATEGORY IN PERCENT (%)
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 CATEGORICAL\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 :
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 FLOOD STAGES (FT)\u00a0 :\u00a0 MINOR\u00a0\u00a0 MODERATE\u00a0 MAJOR
\n\u00a0LOCATION\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 MINOR\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 MOD\u00a0\u00a0 MAJOR :\u00a0 CS HS\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 CS HS\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 CS HS
\n\u00a0——–\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 —— —— —— : — —\u00a0 — —\u00a0 — —
\n\u00a0LITTLE MUDDY CREEK…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 WILLISTON\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 10.0\u00a0\u00a0 12.0\u00a0\u00a0 14.0 :\u00a0 23\u00a0 59\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0 28\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0 10
\n\u00a0LITTLE MISSOURI RIVER…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 MARMARTH\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 18.0\u00a0\u00a0 23.0\u00a0\u00a0 30.0 :\u00a0 5\u00a0 5\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0 5\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0 5
\n\u00a0\u00a0 MEDORA\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 15.0\u00a0\u00a0 18.0\u00a0\u00a0 20.0 :\u00a0 5\u00a0 5\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0 5\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0 5
\n\u00a0\u00a0 WATFORD CITY\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 20.0\u00a0\u00a0 24.0\u00a0\u00a0 30.0 :\u00a0 5\u00a0 5\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0 5\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0 5
\n\u00a0KNIFE RIVER…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 MANNING\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 15.0\u00a0\u00a0 17.0\u00a0\u00a0 20.0 :\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0 21\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0 5\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0 5
\n\u00a0SPRING CREEK…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 ZAP\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 14.0\u00a0\u00a0 18.0\u00a0\u00a0 20.0 :\u00a0 11\u00a0 17\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 7\u00a0\u00a0 7\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0 5
\n\u00a0KNIFE RIVER…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 HAZEN\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 21.0\u00a0\u00a0 24.0\u00a0\u00a0 25.0 :\u00a0 14\u00a0 25\u00a0\u00a0 12\u00a0 14\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0\u00a0 8
\n\u00a0HEART RIVER…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 MANDAN\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 17.0\u00a0\u00a0 23.0\u00a0\u00a0 28.0 :\u00a0 5\u00a0\u00a0 6\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0 5\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0 5
\n\u00a0APPLE CREEK…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 MENOKEN\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 15.0\u00a0\u00a0 16.0\u00a0\u00a0 17.0 :\u00a0 35\u00a0 48\u00a0\u00a0 21\u00a0 43\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 7\u00a0 21
\n\u00a0CANNONBALL RIVER…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 REGENT\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 22.0\u00a0\u00a0 24.0\u00a0\u00a0 26.0 :\u00a0 5\u00a0 5\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0 5\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0 5
\n\u00a0CEDAR CREEK…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 RALEIGH\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 12.0\u00a0\u00a0 14.0\u00a0\u00a0 16.0 :\u00a0 5\u00a0 5\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0 5\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0 5
\n\u00a0CANNONBALL RIVER…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 BREIEN\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 10.0\u00a0\u00a0 20.0\u00a0\u00a0 23.0 :\u00a0 17\u00a0 37\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0 5\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0 5
\n\u00a0BEAVER CREEK…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 LINTON\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 9.0\u00a0\u00a0 11.0\u00a0\u00a0 13.0 :\u00a0 5\u00a0 34\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0 21\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0 15
\n\u00a0JAMES RIVER…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 GRACE CITY\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 12.0\u00a0\u00a0 14.0\u00a0\u00a0 15.0 :\u00a0 10\u00a0 10\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 6\u00a0\u00a0 6\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0\u00a0 5
\n\u00a0PIPESTEM CREEK…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 PINGREE\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 9.0\u00a0\u00a0 11.0\u00a0\u00a0 13.0 :\u00a0 12\u00a0 10\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 6\u00a0\u00a0 6\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0 5
\n\u00a0JAMES RIVER…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 LAMOURE\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 14.0\u00a0\u00a0 16.0\u00a0\u00a0 18.0 :\u00a0\u00a0 7\u00a0\u00a0 9\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0 5
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0LEGEND:
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 CS\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (OUTLOOK FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS)
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 HS\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 HISTORICAL SIMULATION\u00a0 ( ”\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 ”\u00a0 NORMAL\u00a0 CONDITIONS)
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 FT\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 FEET ABOVE GAGE ZERO DATUM
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0…LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK BY RIVER STAGE…
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0THE TABLE BELOW GIVES THE CURRENT 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT CHANCES FOR
\n\u00a0EXCEEDING RIVER STAGES AT THE RIVER FORECAST POINT LOCATIONS DURING
\n\u00a0THE VALID PERIOD OF THIS OUTLOOK.
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0EXAMPLE: DURING THE VALID TIME OF THIS OUTLOOK…THERE IS A
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR THE LITTLE MUDDY CREEK AT WILLISTON
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 TO RISE ABOVE 8.4 FEET AND ONLY A 10 PERCENT CHANCE THAT
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 IT WILL RISE ABOVE 11.2 FEET.
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 JAMES AND MISSOURI RIVER BASINS
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 PROBABILITIES FOR EXCEEDING LISTED RIVER STAGES
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 FROM\u00a0 1\/26\/2013 TO 4\/26\/2013
\n\u00a0TABLE 2
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0LOCATION\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 95%\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 90%\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 75%\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 50%\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 25%\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 10%\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 05%
\n\u00a0——–\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 —— —— —— —— —— —— ——
\n\u00a0LITTLE MUDDY CREEK…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 WILLISTON\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 7.0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 7.1\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 7.8\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 8.4\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 9.6\u00a0\u00a0 11.2\u00a0\u00a0 11.5
\n\u00a0LITTLE MISSOURI RIVER…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 MARMARTH\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 3.0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 3.2\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 3.4\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 4.2\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 4.7\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 5.4\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 5.9
\n\u00a0\u00a0 MEDORA\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 3.3\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 3.8\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 4.4\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 5.2\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 5.8\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 6.9\u00a0\u00a0 10.0
\n\u00a0\u00a0 WATFORD CITY\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.4\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2.0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2.7\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 3.5\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 4.9\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 8.3
\n\u00a0KNIFE RIVER…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 MANNING\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 7.4\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 7.6\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 7.9\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 8.5\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 9.8\u00a0\u00a0 10.6\u00a0\u00a0 14.4
\n\u00a0SPRING CREEK…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 ZAP\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 5.8\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 6.1\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 6.3\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 6.8\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 8.8\u00a0\u00a0 14.8\u00a0\u00a0 18.8
\n\u00a0KNIFE RIVER…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 HAZEN\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 3.6\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 4.9\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 5.5\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 7.0\u00a0\u00a0 15.6\u00a0\u00a0 24.2\u00a0\u00a0 24.9
\n\u00a0HEART RIVER…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 MANDAN\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.8\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2.2\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2.4\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 3.1\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 6.6\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 9.5\u00a0\u00a0 10.3
\n\u00a0APPLE CREEK…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 MENOKEN\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 7.0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 7.3\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 8.3\u00a0\u00a0 10.4\u00a0\u00a0 15.7\u00a0\u00a0 16.3\u00a0\u00a0 19.7
\n\u00a0CANNONBALL RIVER…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 REGENT\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 5.3\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 5.7\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 6.0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 6.9\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 7.7\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 8.5\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 9.2
\n\u00a0CEDAR CREEK…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 RALEIGH\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 3.6\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 3.7\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 4.0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 4.4\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 4.9\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 6.2\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 6.9
\n\u00a0CANNONBALL RIVER…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 BREIEN\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 6.0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 6.6\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 7.5\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 8.1\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 8.6\u00a0\u00a0 11.2\u00a0\u00a0 13.2
\n\u00a0BEAVER CREEK…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 LINTON\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 5.1\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 5.1\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 5.4\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 6.2\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 6.8\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 8.0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 8.4
\n\u00a0JAMES RIVER…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 GRACE CITY\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 4.6\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 4.7\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 5.2\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 5.6\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 6.2\u00a0\u00a0 12.0\u00a0\u00a0 15.5
\n\u00a0PIPESTEM CREEK…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 PINGREE\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 5.0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 5.1\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 5.4\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 5.8\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 6.3\u00a0\u00a0 10.3\u00a0\u00a0 11.6
\n\u00a0JAMES RIVER…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 LAMOURE\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 7.0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 7.1\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 7.3\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 7.5\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 8.0\u00a0\u00a0 11.6\u00a0\u00a0 15.2
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0…THE OUTLOOK PRODUCTION PROCESS…
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0THIS LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK IS BASED ON A SERIES OF PEAK
\n\u00a0RIVER LEVELS OR CRESTS TAKEN FROM THE FORECAST HYDROGRAPH RESULTS
\n\u00a0OF THE NWS ENSEMBLE STREAMFLOW PREDICTION MODEL (ESP). THE MODEL
\n\u00a0IS RUN FOR MULTIPLE SCENARIOS STARTING AT CURRENT RIVER…SNOW AND
\n\u00a0SOIL CONDITIONS AND USING 25 OR MORE YEARS OF PAST PRECIPITATION AND
\n\u00a0TEMPERATURE CONDITIONS IN THE HISTORICAL RECORD. THESE CRESTS CAN
\n\u00a0THEN BE RANKED FROM LOWEST TO HIGHEST…AND ASSIGNED AN
\n\u00a0EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITY. FOR EXAMPLE…FOR A SERIES OF 50 YEARS…
\n\u00a0THE LOWEST RANKED CREST HAS 49 CRESTS ABOVE IT AND SINCE 95 PERCENT
\n\u00a0OF THE CRESTS ARE ABOVE IT… IT IS ASSIGNED A 95 PERCENT
\n\u00a0PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDANCE (POE).
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0THE PROBABILITIES CAN BE USED FOR RISK MANAGEMENT BY COMPARING THIS
\n\u00a0YEARS CURRENT TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS WITH
\n\u00a0THOSE OF PAST YEARS USED IN THE HYDRO OUTLOOK. THEY CAN ALSO BE
\n\u00a0USED AS AN INDICATION OF THE RANGE OF CRESTS THAT MAY BE EXPECTED
\n\u00a0DURING THE VALID PERIOD OF THE OUTLOOK.
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0BY PROVIDING A RANGE OF PEAK RIVER LEVEL PROBABILITIES..THE NWS IS
\n\u00a0IS CONTRIBUTING TO THE AREAS DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES THAT HELP
\n\u00a0WITH LONG RANGE FLOOD PLANNING AND RESPONSE READINESS.\u00a0 THIS OUTLOOK
\n\u00a0IS A PART OF NOAA\/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE\/S AHPS (ADVANCED
\n\u00a0HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICES).
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0THIS OUTLOOK WAS PRODUCED USING PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES
\n\u00a0FOR THE YEARS 1978 THROUGH 2002.
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SOURCES…
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0THE AHPS LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED
\n\u00a0NEAR THE END OF EACH MONTH. HOWEVER…SPRING FLOOD AND WATER
\n\u00a0RESOURCES OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED SEVERAL TIMES DURING THE CRITICAL
\n\u00a0SPRING MELT PERIOD…USUALLY ON THURSDAYS BEGINNING IN LATE
\n\u00a0FEBRUARY OR EARLY MARCH AND ENDING IN EARLY APRIL…DEPENDING ON
\n\u00a0THE SPRING FLOODING CONDITIONS.
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0THIS OUTLOOK IS ALSO PRESENTED AS GRAPHS OF THE PROBABILITY OF STAGE
\n\u00a0EXCEEDANCE FOR THE FULL PERIOD AND FOR WEEKLY INTERVALS DURING THE
\n\u00a0PERIOD. THESE GRAPHS…TOGETHER WITH EXPLANATIONS THAT HELP IN
\n\u00a0INTERPRETING THEM ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE NWS BISMARCK AHPS WEB
\n\u00a0PAGE ON THE INTERNET AT:
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 WWW.WEATHER.GOV\/BISMARCK<\/a> OR WEATHER.GOV\/BIS
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0THEN CLICK ON THE “RIVERS AND LAKES AHPS”ON THE TAB ABOVE THE MAP
\n\u00a0…OR ON THE LINK IN THE BLUE-LEFT-HAND BANNER.
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0CURRENT RIVER CONDITIONS FOR ALL FORECAST POINTS WITHIN THE SOURIS
\n\u00a0RIVER BASIN ARE AVAILABLE ON OUR WEB SITE…AS WELL AS THE FORECASTS
\n\u00a0WHEN THE RIVER AT THE FORECAST POINT IS IN OR NEAR FLOOD.
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS…CONTACT THE NWS AT 701-250-4495.
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED MONTHLY THROUGHOUT<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

…FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK…ISSUED JAN 24, 2013, FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE… \u00a0 \u00a0THIS PROBABILISTIC FLOOD OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MISSOURI AND JAMES RIVER \u00a0BASINS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA…COVERING THE TIME PERIOD OF LATE JANUARY THROUGH LATE APRIL. \u00a0 \u00a0THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE HAS THREE SECTIONS…THE FIRST PROVIDES […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":11547,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[25,14,16],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-11499","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-featured","category-jamestown","category-weathernews"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/csinewsnow.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11499","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/csinewsnow.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/csinewsnow.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/csinewsnow.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/csinewsnow.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=11499"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/csinewsnow.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11499\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":11548,"href":"https:\/\/csinewsnow.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11499\/revisions\/11548"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/csinewsnow.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/11547"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/csinewsnow.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=11499"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/csinewsnow.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=11499"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/csinewsnow.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=11499"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}