{"id":13344,"date":"2013-02-21T10:32:51","date_gmt":"2013-02-21T16:32:51","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/csinewsnow.com\/?p=13344"},"modified":"2013-02-22T10:00:58","modified_gmt":"2013-02-22T16:00:58","slug":"spring-2013-flood-outlook-jms-missouri-rvr-basins","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/csinewsnow.com\/?p=13344","title":{"rendered":"Spring 2013 Flood Outlook Jms, Missouri, Rvr Basins"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
\n\u00a0NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
\n\u00a01020 AM CST THU FEB 21 2013
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0…SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK…
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0THIS IS THE ANNUAL SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK FOR THE
\n\u00a0MISSOURI AND JAMES RIVER BASINS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
\n\u00a0DAKOTA…COVERING THE TIME PERIOD OF 22 FEBRUARY TO 23 MAY 2013. THE
\n\u00a0SIGNIFICANCE OF THIS ISSUANCE IS IN THE TIMING WHICH ENCOMPASSES THE
\n\u00a0VAST MAJORITY OF THE SPRING MELT SEASON ACROSS THE NATION WHILE
\n\u00a0HAVING ENOUGH OF THE SNOW ACCUMULATION SEASON BEHIND US TO GIVE THE
\n\u00a0MODELS A GOOD BASIS FOR DETERMINING THE LIKELIHOOD OF FLOODING
\n\u00a0RELATED TO THE SPRING THAW.
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE HAS THREE SECTIONS…THE FIRST PROVIDES
\n\u00a0HIGHLIGHTS OF THIS PRODUCT AND CONDITIONS AFFECTING LOCAL HYDROLOGY.
\n\u00a0THE SECOND GIVES THE CURRENT AND NORMAL\/HISTORICAL CHANCES OF RIVER
\n\u00a0LOCATIONS REACHING THEIR MINOR…MODERATE…AND MAJOR FLOOD
\n\u00a0CATEGORY. THE FINAL SECTION GIVES THE CURRENT CHANCES OF RIVER
\n\u00a0LOCATIONS RISING ABOVE LISTED RIVER STAGES.
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0…FLOOD OUTLOOK OVERVIEW HIGHLIGHTS…
\n\u00a0IN THE MOST GENERAL OF TERMS AND BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS…THE
\n\u00a0MISSOURI AND JAMES RIVER BASINS OF NORTH DAKOTA ARE BELOW THE
\n\u00a0HISTORICAL (NORMAL) RISKS FOR FLOODING THIS COMING SPRING. WHILE
\n\u00a0BELOW NORMAL…APPLE CREEK NEAR MENOKEN AND THE CANNONBALL RIVER
\n\u00a0NEAR BREIEN STILL HAVE OVER A 30 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF AT LEAST
\n\u00a0MINOR FLOODING. SIMILARLY…THE SNOW ACCUMULATION SEASON STILL HAS
\n\u00a0ENOUGH TIME LEFT FOR PLACES LIKE THE UPPER JAMES RIVER
\n\u00a0BASIN…BEAVER CREEK NEAR LINTON…AND THE LITTLE MUDDY CREEK NEAR
\n\u00a0WILLISTON TO ACCUMULATE A GREATER THAN NORMAL SNOWPACK BEFORE THE
\n\u00a0SPRING MELT.
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0IMPORTANTLY…THE BELOW LISTED PROBABILITIES FOR FLOODING DO NOT
\n\u00a0INCORPORATE RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH ICE JAMS…NOR DO THEY INCLUDE
\n\u00a0RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH LOCALIZED OVERLAND FLOODING. ICE JAMS DO NOT
\n\u00a0LEND THEMSELVES TO MATHEMATICAL MODELS. RIVER MEANDERS AND BRIDGES
\n\u00a0THAT RESTRICT THE EASY PASSAGE OF ICE…OR CHANGE FLOW
\n\u00a0DIRECTION…ARE THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS FOR AN ICE JAM. DESPITE
\n\u00a0HAVING MODEST PROBABILITIES FOR RIVER FLOODING…SOME AREAS SUCH AS
\n\u00a0THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER BASIN IN NORTH DAKOTA HAVE ENOUGH WATER
\n\u00a0EQUIVALENT ON THE GROUND TO CREATE OVERLAND FLOODING. THE POTENTIAL
\n\u00a0IN THOSE AREAS FOR OVERLAND FLOODING CAN EASILY BE ENHANCED BY A
\n\u00a0HEAVY RAIN ON TOP OF THE SPRING MELT.
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0…CURRENT CONDITIONS…
\n\u00a0RESERVOIRS WITH FLOOD CONTROL AS ONE OF THE PURPOSES ARE ALL AT OR
\n\u00a0BELOW THEIR NORMAL DRAWDOWN LEVELS. MOST RIVERS AND STREAMS HAVE AT
\n\u00a0LEAST ENOUGH WATER EQUIVALENT SITTING ON THE GROUND TO ENSURE
\n\u00a0ADEQUATE STREAMFLOW THIS SPRING. THE SNOWPACK IN GENERAL IS BELOW
\n\u00a0NORMAL SOUTH AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER AND TRANSITIONS TO A
\n\u00a0MORE NORMAL…TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WATER CONTENT SOUTH OF
\n\u00a0JAMESTOWN. MOUNTAIN SNOWPACK FOR THE MISSOURI RIVER ITSELF IS NEAR
\n\u00a0NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR…ALTHOUGH ROUGHLY ONE THIRD OF ITS
\n\u00a0SNOW ACCUMULATION SEASON REMAINS.
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0…WEATHER OUTLOOK…
\n\u00a0NO REAL STRONG INDICATOR IS IN PLACE FOR THE ONE MONTH OR THREE
\n\u00a0MONTH CLIMATE OUTLOOKS WHICH GENERALLY FIND NORTH DAKOTA IN THE
\n\u00a0EQUAL CHANCES CATEGORY FOR ABOVE NORMAL…NORMAL…OR BELOW NORMAL
\n\u00a0TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. IN THE SHORTER 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14
\n\u00a0DAY OUTLOOKS…THE GENERAL TREND IS FOR NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL
\n\u00a0TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL TO NORMAL PRECIPITATION.
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0IMPORTANTLY…NO INDICATORS EXIST THAT SUGGEST A REPEAT OF THE VERY
\n\u00a0WET SPRING OF 2011.
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0…SUMMARY OF HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS…
\n\u00a0RIVER…ICE…AND SNOWPACK CONDITIONS SUGGEST THAT WHILE ENOUGH
\n\u00a0WATER WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR ADEQUATE STREAMFLOW THROUGH
\n\u00a0SPRING…SPRING RAINS WILL LIKELY BE THE DRIVING FORCE BEHIND ANY
\n\u00a0FLOODING.
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0…LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC RIVER OUTLOOK BY FLOOD CATEGORY…
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0THE TABLE BELOW GIVES BOTH THE CURRENT CHANCES (CS) AND THE
\n\u00a0NORMAL\/HISTORICAL CHANCES (HS) FOR EXCEEDING THE MINOR…MODERATE
\n\u00a0AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES AT THE RIVER FORECAST POINT LOCATIONS DURING
\n\u00a0THE VALID PERIOD OF THIS OUTLOOK.
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 JAMES AND MISSOURI RIVER BASINS
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR…MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 FROM\u00a0 2\/22\/2013 TO 5\/23\/2013 Z
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0TABLE 1\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 : CHANCES OF EXCEEDING FLOOD
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 : CATEGORY IN PERCENT (%)
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 CATEGORICAL\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 :
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 FLOOD STAGES (FT)\u00a0 :\u00a0 MINOR\u00a0\u00a0 MODERATE\u00a0 MAJOR
\n\u00a0LOCATION\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 MINOR\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 MOD\u00a0\u00a0 MAJOR :\u00a0 CS HS\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 CS HS\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 CS HS
\n\u00a0——–\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 —— —— —— : — —\u00a0 — —\u00a0 — —
\n\u00a0LITTLE MUDDY CREEK…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 WILLISTON\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 10.0\u00a0\u00a0 12.0\u00a0\u00a0 14.0 :\u00a0 16\u00a0 63\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0 28\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0 10
\n\u00a0LITTLE MISSOURI RIVER…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 MARMARTH\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 18.0\u00a0\u00a0 23.0\u00a0\u00a0 30.0 :\u00a0 5\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0 5\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0 5
\n\u00a0\u00a0 MEDORA\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 15.0\u00a0\u00a0 18.0\u00a0\u00a0 20.0 :\u00a0 5\u00a0\u00a0 7\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0\u00a0 6\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0\u00a0 5
\n\u00a0\u00a0 WATFORD CITY\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 20.0\u00a0\u00a0 24.0\u00a0\u00a0 30.0 :\u00a0 5\u00a0 5\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0 5\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0 5
\n\u00a0KNIFE RIVER…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 MANNING\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 15.0\u00a0\u00a0 17.0\u00a0\u00a0 20.0 :\u00a0 5\u00a0 21\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0 5\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0 5
\n\u00a0SPRING CREEK…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 ZAP\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 14.0\u00a0\u00a0 18.0\u00a0\u00a0 20.0 :\u00a0\u00a0 6\u00a0 22\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0\u00a0 7\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0 5
\n\u00a0KNIFE RIVER…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 HAZEN\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 21.0\u00a0\u00a0 24.0\u00a0\u00a0 25.0 :\u00a0\u00a0 6\u00a0 29\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0 14\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0\u00a0 8
\n\u00a0HEART RIVER…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 MANDAN\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 17.0\u00a0\u00a0 23.0\u00a0\u00a0 28.0 :\u00a0 5\u00a0\u00a0 6\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0 5\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0 5
\n\u00a0APPLE CREEK…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 MENOKEN\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 15.0\u00a0\u00a0 16.0\u00a0\u00a0 17.0 :\u00a0 35\u00a0 55\u00a0\u00a0 13\u00a0 47\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0 25
\n\u00a0CANNONBALL RIVER…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 REGENT\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 22.0\u00a0\u00a0 24.0\u00a0\u00a0 26.0 :\u00a0 5\u00a0 5\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0 5\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0 5
\n\u00a0CEDAR CREEK…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 RALEIGH\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 12.0\u00a0\u00a0 14.0\u00a0\u00a0 16.0 :\u00a0 5\u00a0 5\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0 5\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0 5
\n\u00a0CANNONBALL RIVER…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 BREIEN\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 10.0\u00a0\u00a0 20.0\u00a0\u00a0 23.0 :\u00a0 30\u00a0 41\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0 5\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0 5
\n\u00a0BEAVER CREEK…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 LINTON\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 9.0\u00a0\u00a0 11.0\u00a0\u00a0 13.0 :\u00a0 15\u00a0 38\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 9\u00a0 29\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0 24
\n\u00a0JAMES RIVER…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 GRACE CITY\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 12.0\u00a0\u00a0 14.0\u00a0\u00a0 15.0 :\u00a0 5\u00a0 10\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0\u00a0 6\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0\u00a0 5
\n\u00a0PIPESTEM CREEK…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 PINGREE\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 9.0\u00a0\u00a0 11.0\u00a0\u00a0 13.0 :\u00a0\u00a0 7\u00a0 11\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0\u00a0 6\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0 5
\n\u00a0JAMES RIVER…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 LAMOURE\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 14.0\u00a0\u00a0 16.0\u00a0\u00a0 18.0 :\u00a0 5\u00a0\u00a0 9\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0 5
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0LEGEND:
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 CS\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (OUTLOOK FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS)
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 HS\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 HISTORICAL SIMULATION\u00a0 ( ”\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 ”\u00a0 NORMAL\u00a0 CONDITIONS)
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 FT\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 FEET ABOVE GAGE ZERO DATUM
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0…LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK BY RIVER STAGE…
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0THE TABLE BELOW GIVES THE CURRENT 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT CHANCES FOR
\n\u00a0EXCEEDING RIVER STAGES AT THE RIVER FORECAST POINT LOCATIONS DURING
\n\u00a0THE VALID PERIOD OF THIS OUTLOOK.
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0EXAMPLE: DURING THE VALID TIME OF THIS OUTLOOK…THERE IS A
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 95 PERCENT CHANCE FOR THE LITTLE MUDDY CREEK AT
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 WILLISTON TO RISE ABOVE 5.1 FEET AND ONLY A 10 PERCENT
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 CHANCE THAT IT WILL RISE ABOVE 10.4 FEET.
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 JAMES AND MISSOURI RIVER BASINS
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 PROBABILITIES FOR EXCEEDING LISTED RIVER STAGES
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 FROM\u00a0 2\/22\/2013 TO 5\/23\/2013
\n\u00a0TABLE 2
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0LOCATION\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 95%\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 90%\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 75%\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 50%\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 25%\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 10%\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 05%
\n\u00a0——–\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 —— —— —— —— —— —— ——
\n\u00a0LITTLE MUDDY CREEK…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 WILLISTON\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 5.1\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 5.2\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 6.2\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 7.5\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 8.9\u00a0\u00a0 10.4\u00a0\u00a0 10.8
\n\u00a0LITTLE MISSOURI RIVER…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 MARMARTH\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.8\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.8\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2.1\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 3.0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 4.0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 6.8\u00a0\u00a0 10.3
\n\u00a0\u00a0 MEDORA\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.9\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2.0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2.4\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 3.7\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 4.7\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 7.7\u00a0\u00a0 10.6
\n\u00a0\u00a0 WATFORD CITY\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -0.9\u00a0\u00a0 -0.3\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.5\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.6\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 3.1\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 5.0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 6.5
\n\u00a0KNIFE RIVER…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 MANNING\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 6.2\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 6.2\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 6.5\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 8.1\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 9.3\u00a0\u00a0 10.4\u00a0\u00a0 10.8
\n\u00a0SPRING CREEK…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 ZAP\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 5.2\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 5.3\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 5.8\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 7.0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 9.8\u00a0\u00a0 11.6\u00a0\u00a0 15.0
\n\u00a0KNIFE RIVER…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 HAZEN\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.3\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.7\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 4.7\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 8.3\u00a0\u00a0 10.8\u00a0\u00a0 16.1\u00a0\u00a0 22.0
\n\u00a0HEART RIVER…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 MANDAN\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.1\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.4\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2.5\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 3.4\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 6.5\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 7.1\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 8.2
\n\u00a0APPLE CREEK…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 MENOKEN\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 5.4\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 5.7\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 6.5\u00a0\u00a0 10.7\u00a0\u00a0 15.6\u00a0\u00a0 16.2\u00a0\u00a0 16.9
\n\u00a0CANNONBALL RIVER…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 REGENT\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 4.4\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 4.5\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 6.3\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 7.2\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 8.7\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 9.9\u00a0\u00a0 10.7
\n\u00a0CEDAR CREEK…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 RALEIGH\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 3.2\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 3.4\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 4.0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 4.6\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 5.8\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 7.2\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 7.8
\n\u00a0CANNONBALL RIVER…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 BREIEN\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 6.5\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 6.5\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 7.1\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 8.0\u00a0\u00a0 10.2\u00a0\u00a0 13.2\u00a0\u00a0 14.2
\n\u00a0BEAVER CREEK…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 LINTON\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 5.4\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 5.5\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 6.1\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 7.0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 7.9\u00a0\u00a0 10.7\u00a0\u00a0 12.5
\n\u00a0JAMES RIVER…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 GRACE CITY\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 3.8\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 3.8\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 4.3\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 4.8\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 5.4\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 7.1\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 9.2
\n\u00a0PIPESTEM CREEK…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 PINGREE\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 4.8\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 4.8\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 5.0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 5.4\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 5.8\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 6.6\u00a0\u00a0 10.4
\n\u00a0JAMES RIVER…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 LAMOURE\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 6.8\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 6.9\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 7.1\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 7.3\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 7.9\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 9.6\u00a0\u00a0 12.7
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0…THE OUTLOOK PRODUCTION PROCESS…
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0THIS LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK IS BASED ON A SERIES OF PEAK
\n\u00a0RIVER LEVELS OR CRESTS TAKEN FROM THE FORECAST HYDROGRAPH RESULTS
\n\u00a0OF THE NWS ENSEMBLE STREAMFLOW PREDICTION MODEL (ESP). THE MODEL
\n\u00a0IS RUN FOR MULTIPLE SCENARIOS STARTING AT CURRENT RIVER…SNOW AND
\n\u00a0SOIL CONDITIONS AND USING 25 OR MORE YEARS OF PAST PRECIPITATION AND
\n\u00a0TEMPERATURE CONDITIONS IN THE HISTORICAL RECORD. THESE CRESTS CAN
\n\u00a0THEN BE RANKED FROM LOWEST TO HIGHEST…AND ASSIGNED AN
\n\u00a0EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITY. FOR EXAMPLE…FOR A SERIES OF 50 YEARS…
\n\u00a0THE LOWEST RANKED CREST HAS 49 CRESTS ABOVE IT AND SINCE 95 PERCENT
\n\u00a0OF THE CRESTS ARE ABOVE IT… IT IS ASSIGNED A 95 PERCENT
\n\u00a0PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDANCE (POE).
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0THE PROBABILITIES CAN BE USED FOR RISK MANAGEMENT BY COMPARING THIS
\n\u00a0YEARS CURRENT TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS WITH
\n\u00a0THOSE OF PAST YEARS USED IN THE HYDRO OUTLOOK. THEY CAN ALSO BE
\n\u00a0USED AS AN INDICATION OF THE RANGE OF CRESTS THAT MAY BE EXPECTED
\n\u00a0DURING THE VALID PERIOD OF THE OUTLOOK.
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0BY PROVIDING A RANGE OF PEAK RIVER LEVEL PROBABILITIES..THE NWS IS
\n\u00a0IS CONTRIBUTING TO THE AREAS DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES THAT HELP
\n\u00a0WITH LONG RANGE FLOOD PLANNING AND RESPONSE READINESS.\u00a0 THIS OUTLOOK
\n\u00a0IS A PART OF NOAA\/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE\/S AHPS (ADVANCED
\n\u00a0HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICES).
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SOURCES…
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0THE AHPS LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED
\n\u00a0NEAR THE END OF EACH MONTH. HOWEVER…SPRING FLOOD AND WATER
\n\u00a0RESOURCES OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED SEVERAL TIMES DURING THE CRITICAL
\n\u00a0SPRING MELT PERIOD…USUALLY ON THURSDAYS BEGINNING IN LATE
\n\u00a0FEBRUARY OR EARLY MARCH AND ENDING IN EARLY APRIL…DEPENDING ON
\n\u00a0THE SPRING FLOODING CONDITIONS.
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0THIS OUTLOOK IS ALSO PRESENTED AS GRAPHS OF THE PROBABILITY OF STAGE
\n\u00a0EXCEEDANCE FOR THE FULL PERIOD AND FOR WEEKLY INTERVALS DURING THE
\n\u00a0PERIOD. THESE GRAPHS…TOGETHER WITH EXPLANATIONS THAT HELP IN
\n\u00a0INTERPRETING THEM ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE NWS BISMARCK AHPS WEB
\n\u00a0PAGE ON THE INTERNET AT:
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 WWW.WEATHER.GOV\/BISMARCK<\/a> OR WEATHER.GOV\/BIS
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 THEN CLICK ON THE “RIVERS AND LAKES AHPS”ON THE TAB ABOVE THE MAP
\n\u00a0\u00a0 …OR ON THE LINK IN THE BLUE-LEFT-HAND BANNER.
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0CURRENT RIVER CONDITIONS FOR ALL FORECAST POINTS WITHIN THE SOURIS
\n\u00a0RIVER BASIN ARE AVAILABLE ON OUR WEB SITE…AS WELL AS THE FORECASTS
\n\u00a0WHEN THE RIVER AT THE FORECAST POINT IS IN OR NEAR FLOOD.
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS…CONTACT THE NWS AT 701-250-4495.
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED MONTHLY THROUGHOUT
\n\u00a0THE REST OF THE YEAR DURING THE LATER PART OF THE MONTH OR AS
\n\u00a0CONDITIONS WARRANT.<\/p>\n

Jamestown, ND (KCSi-T.V. News Feb 21, 2013) — The National Weather Service says the risk of major flooding on the Sheyenne River is low so far, less than 30 percent for minor flooding or greater in Valley City, Lisbon, Enderlin and Hillsboro.<\/p>\n

Snowpack moisture in the James River Valley is low so far, but are increasing, with present snow melt amounts expected to be controlled by Pipestem and Jamestown Dams.<\/p>\n

The anticipated flood outlook as of Februay 21,, 2013 is roughly 10 percent for minor flooding of 12 feet, 6 percent for moderate flooding of 14 feet and 5 percent for minor flooding of 15 feet along the James River at Grace City.<\/p>\n

The outlook includes 11 percent for minor flooding of 9 feet, 6 percent for moderate flooding of 11 feet and less than 5 percent for major flooding of 13 feet along Pipestem Creek at Pingree.<\/p>\n

Calculations do not include any flooding caused by ice jams and assume normal levels of precipitation through the next three months.<\/p>\n

Flooding below the Jamestown and Pipestem dams, measured at LaMoure, is also low with a 9 percent chance of minor flooding of 14 feet, 5 percent chance of moderate flooding of 16 feet and less than 5 percent chance of major flooding of 18 feet.<\/p>\n

Overland flooding depends on the amount and timing of spring rains, and snow melt, plus the amount of frost in the ground, relative to run off amounts.<\/p>\n

The National Weather Service has dramatically bumped up the chances of major flooding on the Red River near Fargo, but city officials say it should have minimal impact on residents.<\/p>\n

Weather service meteorologist Greg Gust says the chance of major flooding in North Dakota\u2019s largest city has increased from 6 percent a month ago to 79 percent, based mainly on water content in the snowpack.<\/p>\n

Major flood stage in Fargo is 30 feet. There\u2019s a 50 percent chance the river will reach 33.2 feet, a 25 percent chance it will hit 35.1 feet and a 5 percent chance of 37.8 feet.<\/p>\n

Fargo officials say the city has taken steps to handle major flooding since a record crest in 2009.
\nThe next flood outlook will be released March 7.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK \u00a0NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND \u00a01020 AM CST THU FEB 21 2013 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0…SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK… \u00a0 \u00a0THIS IS THE ANNUAL SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK FOR THE \u00a0MISSOURI AND JAMES RIVER BASINS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH \u00a0DAKOTA…COVERING THE TIME PERIOD […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":2862,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[14,5,16],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-13344","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-jamestown","category-valley-city","category-weathernews"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/csinewsnow.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13344","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/csinewsnow.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/csinewsnow.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/csinewsnow.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/csinewsnow.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=13344"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/csinewsnow.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13344\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":13418,"href":"https:\/\/csinewsnow.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13344\/revisions\/13418"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/csinewsnow.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/2862"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/csinewsnow.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=13344"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/csinewsnow.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=13344"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/csinewsnow.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=13344"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}