{"id":14175,"date":"2013-03-07T10:42:12","date_gmt":"2013-03-07T16:42:12","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/csinewsnow.com\/?p=14175"},"modified":"2013-03-08T07:38:14","modified_gmt":"2013-03-08T13:38:14","slug":"flood-probability-jmst-river-basin-mar-jun-2013","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/csinewsnow.com\/?p=14175","title":{"rendered":"Flood Probability Jmst River Basin Mar-Jun 2013"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Bismarck, ND (KCSi-T.V. News Mar 8, 2013) — The National Weather Service rports, that despite recent snow and its moisture content, the flood outlook as of today, in the James River basin remains low.<\/p>\n

Current forecasts show less than a 5 percent chance of flooding of any type at Grace City in the northern basin. and at LaMoure in the southern basin.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s is a decrease from a 10 percent flooding probability at Grace City two weeks ago.<\/p>\n

Pipestem Creek at Pingree is now at a 7 percent chance of flooding compared to an 11 percent chance of flooding forecast two weeks ago.<\/p>\n

Pipestem Dam Manager,Bob Martin, says the snow depth had increased from 10.8 inches to 15.2 inches over the past two weeks.<\/p>\n

Moisture content in the snow increased from 1.79 inches to 2.13 inches during that time..<\/p>\n

Martin says the moisture content at its present amount, is really not at levels of concern.<\/p>\n

The National Weather Service says there is still a concern with overland flooding especially south of Jamestown, and could be affected by the amount of spring rain on the snow pack.<\/p>\n

The current long range forecasts have equal chances of above- or below-normal precipitation for the three-month period.<\/p>\n

On Thursday, Pipestem Dam was releasing 2 cubic feet per second matching inflows from springs and keeping the reservoir level steady.<\/p>\n

No water is presently being released from Jamestown Dam.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

ST. PAUL, Minn. (Mar 7, 2013) \u2013\u00a0 The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, St. Paul District, will begin the drawdown of four of its western area reservoirs to the maximum drawdown elevations in preparation of spring flooding forecasted by the National Weather Service.<\/p>\n

The Corps\u2019 drawdown plans include:<\/p>\n

Baldhill Dam, <\/strong>near Valley City, N.D., is targeted to reach its maximum drawdown elevation of 1,257 feet by the end of March. The Corps initiated part of the drawdown in October 2012. The reservoir is currently just above elevation 1,262 feet.<\/p>\n

Homme Dam, located near Park River, N.D., will be lowered to its maximum elevation of 1,064 feet by the end of March. The Corps initiated part of the drawdown at the dam in November 2012. The Corps will begin the final portion of the drawdown at the reservoir March 8. The pool is currently at elevation 1,076 feet.<\/p>\n

Lake Traverse, near Wheaton, Minn., is targeted to reach its maximum drawdown elevation of 974 feet by the end of the month. The reservoir is currently one foot below the conservation level with two feet remaining.<\/p>\n

Orwell Reservoir, near Fergus Falls, Minn., is targeted to reach its maximum drawdown elevation of 1,050 feet by the end of March. The reservoir is currently just above elevation 1,063 feet.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u00a0 FARGO, N.D. (AP) – The mayor of North Dakota’s largest city says he has “no serious concerns” with the recent National Weather Service report that calls for major spring flooding along the Red River.
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 The weather service in a report released Thursday gives the river in Fargo a 50 percent chance of cresting just under 34 feet, or about 16 feet above flood stage.
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Crest predictions in the new outlook are up slightly from last month.
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Fargo Mayor Dennis Walaker says city officials will discuss the report Monday in their second flood meeting of the season. He says they will base their planning on the 50 percent prediction.
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 If the 34 feet number holds, a temporary clay dike would likely be built in front of city hall, but few other structures would be threatened.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
\n\u00a0NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
\n\u00a00942 AM CST THU MAR 07 2013<\/span>
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0…SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK…
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0THIS IS THE SECOND ISSUANCE OF THE ANNUAL SPRING FLOOD AND WATER\u00a0 RESOURCES OUTLOOK FOR THE MISSOURI AND JAMES RIVER BASINS OF WESTERN\u00a0 AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA…COVERING THE TIME PERIOD OF 9 MARCH TO 7 – JUNE 2013.<\/p>\n

THE SIGNIFICANCE OF THIS ISSUANCE IS IN THE TIMING
\n\u00a0WHICH ENCOMPASSES THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE SPRING MELT SEASON ACROSS\u00a0\u00a0THE NATION WHILE HAVING ENOUGH OF THE SNOW ACCUMULATION SEASON\u00a0 BEHIND US TO GIVE THE MODELS A GOOD BASIS FOR DETERMINING THE \u00a0LIKELIHOOD OF FLOODING RELATED TO THE SPRING THAW.
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE HAS THREE SECTIONS…THE FIRST PROVIDES
\n\u00a0HIGHLIGHTS OF THIS PRODUCT AND CONDITIONS AFFECTING LOCAL HYDROLOGY.
\n\u00a0THE SECOND GIVES THE CURRENT AND NORMAL\/HISTORICAL CHANCES OF RIVER\u00a0 LOCATIONS REACHING THEIR MINOR…MODERATE…AND MAJOR FLOOD\u00a0 CATEGORY. THE FINAL SECTION GIVES THE CURRENT CHANCES OF RIVER\u00a0 LOCATIONS RISING ABOVE LISTED RIVER STAGES.
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0…FLOOD OUTLOOK OVERVIEW HIGHLIGHTS…
\n\u00a0THE MISSOURI AND JAMES RIVER BASINS<\/span> OF NORTH DAKOTA REMAIN BELOW THE\u00a0 HISTORICAL (NORMAL) RISKS FOR FLOODING THIS COMING SPRING. WHILE\u00a0 BELOW NORMAL…APPLE CREEK NEAR MENOKEN AND BEAVER CREEK NEAR LINTON \u00a0STILL HAVE FAIRLY HIGH RISK OF REACHING MINOR FLOODING DUE TO THEIR\u00a0 SUSCEPTIBILITY TO HEAVY SPRING RAINS. THE CANNONBALL RIVER NEAR\u00a0 BREIEN ALSO RETAINS A 20 PERCENT RISK OF MINOR FLOODING DUE TO\u00a0 SPRING RAINS.
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0IMPORTANTLY…THE BELOW LISTED PROBABILITIES FOR FLOODING DO NOT \u00a0INCORPORATE RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH ICE JAMS…NOR DO THEY INCLUDE\u00a0 \u00a0RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH LOCALIZED OVERLAND FLOODING. ICE JAMS DO NOT\u00a0 LEND THEMSELVES TO MATHEMATICAL MODELS. RIVER MEANDERS AND BRIDGES\u00a0 THAT RESTRICT THE EASY PASSAGE OF ICE…OR CHANGE FLOW\u00a0 DIRECTION…ARE THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS FOR AN ICE JAM. DESPITE\u00a0 HAVING MODEST PROBABILITIES FOR RIVER FLOODING…<\/p>\n

SOME AREAS SUCH AS\u00a0 THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER BASIN IN NORTH DAKOTA HAVE ENOUGH WATER \u00a0EQUIVALENT ON THE GROUND TO CREATE OVERLAND FLOODING. THE POTENTIAL
\n\u00a0IN THOSE AREAS FOR OVERLAND FLOODING CAN EASILY BE ENHANCED BY A \u00a0HEAVY RAIN ON TOP OF THE SPRING MELT.
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0…CURRENT CONDITIONS…
\n\u00a0RESERVOIRS WITH FLOOD CONTROL AS ONE OF THEIR PURPOSES ARE ALL AT OR\u00a0 BELOW THEIR NORMAL DRAW DOWN LEVELS. MOST RIVERS AND STREAMS HAVE AT\u00a0 LEAST ENOUGH WATER EQUIVALENT SITTING ON THE GROUND TO ENSURE\u00a0 ADEQUATE STREAMFLOW THIS SPRING. THE SNOWPACK IN GENERAL IS BELOW\u00a0 NORMAL SOUTH AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER AND TRANSITIONS TO A\u00a0 MORE NORMAL SNOWPACK FARTHER NORTH OF LAKE SAKAKAWEA AND A SLIGHTLY
\n\u00a0ABOVE NORMAL WATER CONTENT SOUTH OF JAMESTOWN.<\/p>\n

\u00a0MOUNTAIN SNOWPACK FOR
\n\u00a0THE MISSOURI RIVER ITSELF IS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO NEAR NORMAL\u00a0 FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH ROUGHLY 25 PERCENT OF THE ITS SNOW\u00a0 ACCUMULATION SEASON REMAINING.
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0…WEATHER OUTLOOK…
\n\u00a0IN THE SHORTER 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS…THE FAVORED
\n\u00a0OUTCOME IS FOR ABOVE NORMAL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND BELOW NORMAL\u00a0 TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.\u00a0<\/p>\n

GOING OUT TO THE ONE MONTH AND THREE\u00a0 MONTH OUTLOOKS…A BELOW NORMAL EXPECTATION FOR TEMPERATURES
\n\u00a0TRANSITIONS INTO AN EQUAL CHANCE FOR BELOW NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL\u00a0 OUTCOME.<\/p>\n

\u00a0PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS FOR THE ONE MONTH AND THREE MONTH\u00a0\u00a0OUTLOOKS ARE CONSISTENT WITH NO STRONG INDICATOR IN PLACE WHICH\u00a0 RESULTS IN EQUAL CHANCES FOR BELOW NORMAL…NORMAL…OR ABOVE NORMAL\u00a0 OUTCOMES.
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0IMPORTANTLY…THERE ARE STILL NO CLIMATE INDICATORS THAT WOULD\u00a0\u00a0SUGGEST A REPEAT OF THE VERY WET SPRING OF 2011.
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0…SUMMARY OF HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS…
\n\u00a0THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS HAVE SEEN NOT ONLY A SIGNIFICANT WINTER\u00a0 STORM PASSING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA…BUT SOME WARMER DAYS MIXED IN\u00a0 WHICH HAS RESULTED IN SOME RUNOFF. MOST OF THE RUNOFF HAS BEEN FROM\u00a0 THE NEAR SHORE AREA AND HAS ONLY JUST STARTED TO WEAKEN THE RIVER\u00a0 ICE. ALL CONDITIONS SUGGEST THAT WHILE ENOUGH WATER WILL BE\u00a0 AVAILABLE FOR ADEQUATE STREAMFLOW THROUGH SPRING…SPRING RAINS WILL
\n\u00a0LIKELY BE THE DRIVING FORCE BEHIND ANY FLOODING.
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0…LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC RIVER OUTLOOK BY FLOOD CATEGORY…
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0THE TABLE BELOW GIVES BOTH THE CURRENT CHANCES (CS) AND THE
\n\u00a0NORMAL\/HISTORICAL CHANCES (HS) FOR EXCEEDING THE MINOR…MODERATE
\n\u00a0AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES AT THE RIVER FORECAST POINT LOCATIONS DURING
\n\u00a0THE VALID PERIOD OF THIS OUTLOOK.
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 JAMES AND MISSOURI RIVER BASINS
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR…MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 FROM\u00a0 3\/9\/2013 TO 6\/7\/2013 Z
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0TABLE 1\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 : CHANCES OF EXCEEDING FLOOD
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 : CATEGORY IN PERCENT (%)
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 CATEGORICAL\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 :
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 FLOOD STAGES (FT)\u00a0 :\u00a0 MINOR\u00a0\u00a0 MODERATE\u00a0 MAJOR
\n\u00a0LOCATION\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 MINOR\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 MOD\u00a0\u00a0 MAJOR :\u00a0 CS HS\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 CS HS\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 CS HS
\n\u00a0——–\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 —— —— —— : — —\u00a0 — —\u00a0 — —
\n\u00a0LITTLE MUDDY CREEK…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 WILLISTON\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 10.0\u00a0\u00a0 12.0\u00a0\u00a0 14.0 :\u00a0 22\u00a0 63\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0 28\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0 10
\n\u00a0LITTLE MISSOURI RIVER…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 MARMARTH\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 18.0\u00a0\u00a0 23.0\u00a0\u00a0 30.0 :\u00a0 5\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0 5\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0 5
\n\u00a0\u00a0 MEDORA\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 15.0\u00a0\u00a0 18.0\u00a0\u00a0 20.0 :\u00a0 5\u00a0\u00a0 7\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0\u00a0 6\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0\u00a0 5
\n\u00a0\u00a0 WATFORD CITY\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 20.0\u00a0\u00a0 24.0\u00a0\u00a0 30.0 :\u00a0 5\u00a0 5\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0 5\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0 5
\n\u00a0KNIFE RIVER…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 MANNING\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 15.0\u00a0\u00a0 17.0\u00a0\u00a0 20.0 :\u00a0 5\u00a0 18\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0 5\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0 5
\n\u00a0SPRING CREEK…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 ZAP\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 14.0\u00a0\u00a0 18.0\u00a0\u00a0 20.0 :\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0 22\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0\u00a0 7\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0 5
\n\u00a0KNIFE RIVER…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 HAZEN\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 21.0\u00a0\u00a0 24.0\u00a0\u00a0 25.0 :\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0 25\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0 11\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0\u00a0 8
\n\u00a0HEART RIVER…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 MANDAN\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 17.0\u00a0\u00a0 23.0\u00a0\u00a0 28.0 :\u00a0 5\u00a0\u00a0 6\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0 5\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0 5
\n\u00a0APPLE CREEK…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 MENOKEN\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 15.0\u00a0\u00a0 16.0\u00a0\u00a0 17.0 :\u00a0 32\u00a0 55\u00a0\u00a0 18\u00a0 47\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0 25
\n\u00a0CANNONBALL RIVER…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 REGENT\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 22.0\u00a0\u00a0 24.0\u00a0\u00a0 26.0 :\u00a0 5\u00a0 5\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0 5\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0 5
\n\u00a0CEDAR CREEK…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 RALEIGH\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 12.0\u00a0\u00a0 14.0\u00a0\u00a0 16.0 :\u00a0 5\u00a0 5\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0 5\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0 5
\n\u00a0CANNONBALL RIVER…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 BREIEN\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 10.0\u00a0\u00a0 20.0\u00a0\u00a0 23.0 :\u00a0 20\u00a0 38\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0 5\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0 5
\n\u00a0BEAVER CREEK…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 LINTON\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 9.0\u00a0\u00a0 11.0\u00a0\u00a0 13.0 :\u00a0 34\u00a0 38\u00a0\u00a0 27\u00a0 29\u00a0\u00a0 14\u00a0 24
\n\u00a0JAMES RIVER…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 GRACE CITY\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 12.0\u00a0\u00a0 14.0\u00a0\u00a0 15.0 :\u00a0 5\u00a0 10\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0\u00a0 6\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0\u00a0 5
\n\u00a0PIPESTEM CREEK…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 PINGREE\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 9.0\u00a0\u00a0 11.0\u00a0\u00a0 13.0 :\u00a0\u00a0 7\u00a0 12\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0\u00a0 6\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0 5
\n\u00a0JAMES RIVER…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 LAMOURE\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 14.0\u00a0\u00a0 16.0\u00a0\u00a0 18.0 :\u00a0 5\u00a0\u00a0 9\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0 5
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0LEGEND:
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 CS\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (OUTLOOK FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS)
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 HS\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 HISTORICAL SIMULATION\u00a0 ( ”\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 ”\u00a0 NORMAL\u00a0 CONDITIONS)
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 FT\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 FEET ABOVE GAGE ZERO DATUM
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0…LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK BY RIVER STAGE…
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0THE TABLE BELOW GIVES THE CURRENT 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT CHANCES FOR
\n\u00a0EXCEEDING RIVER STAGES AT THE RIVER FORECAST POINT LOCATIONS DURING
\n\u00a0THE VALID PERIOD OF THIS OUTLOOK.
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0EXAMPLE: DURING THE VALID TIME OF THIS OUTLOOK…THERE IS A\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0
\n\u00a050 PERCENT CHANCE FOR THE LITTLE MUDDY CREEK AT WILLISTON TO RISE
\n\u00a0ABOVE 8.3 FEET AND ONLY A 10 PERCENT CHANCE THAT IT WILL RISE ABOVE
\n\u00a010.8 FEET.
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 JAMES AND MISSOURI RIVER BASINS
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 PROBABILITIES FOR EXCEEDING LISTED RIVER STAGES
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 FROM\u00a0 3\/9\/2013 TO 6\/7\/2013
\n\u00a0TABLE 2
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0LOCATION\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 95%\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 90%\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 75%\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 50%\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 25%\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 10%\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 05%
\n\u00a0——–\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 —— —— —— —— —— —— ——
\n\u00a0LITTLE MUDDY CREEK…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 WILLISTON\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 6.1\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 6.5\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 7.3\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 8.3\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 9.8\u00a0\u00a0 10.8\u00a0\u00a0 10.8
\n\u00a0LITTLE MISSOURI RIVER…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 MARMARTH\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.8\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.8\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.9\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 3.0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 3.9\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 6.4\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 9.9
\n\u00a0\u00a0 MEDORA\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.9\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.9\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2.1\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 3.3\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 4.5\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 7.3\u00a0\u00a0 10.4
\n\u00a0\u00a0 WATFORD CITY\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -0.9\u00a0\u00a0 -0.5\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.3\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.1\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2.5\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 4.6\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 6.4
\n\u00a0KNIFE RIVER…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 MANNING\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 6.2\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 6.2\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 6.2\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 7.3\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 8.9\u00a0\u00a0 10.1\u00a0\u00a0 10.7
\n\u00a0SPRING CREEK…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 ZAP\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 5.1\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 5.2\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 5.6\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 6.4\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 9.7\u00a0\u00a0 11.1\u00a0\u00a0 14.5
\n\u00a0KNIFE RIVER…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 HAZEN\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.3\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2.0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 3.6\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 6.6\u00a0\u00a0 10.7\u00a0\u00a0 16.0\u00a0\u00a0 21.0
\n\u00a0HEART RIVER…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 MANDAN\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.4\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2.0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 3.0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 5.6\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 7.6\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 9.7
\n\u00a0APPLE CREEK…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 MENOKEN\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 5.6\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 5.8\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 6.7\u00a0\u00a0 11.5\u00a0\u00a0 15.7\u00a0\u00a0 16.3\u00a0\u00a0 17.0
\n\u00a0CANNONBALL RIVER…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 REGENT\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 3.2\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 3.3\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 4.6\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 6.7\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 8.3\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 9.3\u00a0\u00a0 10.4
\n\u00a0CEDAR CREEK…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 RALEIGH\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2.3\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2.3\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2.8\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 4.3\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 5.4\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 6.4\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 6.8
\n\u00a0CANNONBALL RIVER…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 BREIEN\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 5.1\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 5.1\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 5.6\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 7.3\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 9.6\u00a0\u00a0 11.6\u00a0\u00a0 13.2
\n\u00a0BEAVER CREEK…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 LINTON\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 6.6\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 6.8\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 6.9\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 8.0\u00a0\u00a0 12.0\u00a0\u00a0 13.6\u00a0\u00a0 14.6
\n\u00a0JAMES RIVER…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 GRACE CITY\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 4.4\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 4.5\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 4.8\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 5.1\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 5.6\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 6.7\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 8.1
\n\u00a0PIPESTEM CREEK…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 PINGREE\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 5.1\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 5.1\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 5.2\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 5.6\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 6.7\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 7.8\u00a0\u00a0 10.1
\n\u00a0JAMES RIVER…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 LAMOURE\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 7.1\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 7.1\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 7.3\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 7.6\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 8.2\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 9.7\u00a0\u00a0 10.4
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0…THE OUTLOOK PRODUCTION PROCESS…
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0THIS LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK IS BASED ON A SERIES OF PEAK
\n\u00a0RIVER LEVELS OR CRESTS TAKEN FROM THE FORECAST HYDROGRAPH RESULTS
\n\u00a0OF THE NWS ENSEMBLE STREAMFLOW PREDICTION MODEL (ESP). THE MODEL
\n\u00a0IS RUN FOR MULTIPLE SCENARIOS STARTING AT CURRENT RIVER…SNOW AND
\n\u00a0SOIL CONDITIONS AND USING 25 OR MORE YEARS OF PAST PRECIPITATION AND
\n\u00a0TEMPERATURE CONDITIONS IN THE HISTORICAL RECORD. THESE CRESTS CAN
\n\u00a0THEN BE RANKED FROM LOWEST TO HIGHEST…AND ASSIGNED AN
\n\u00a0EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITY. FOR EXAMPLE…FOR A SERIES OF 50 YEARS…
\n\u00a0THE LOWEST RANKED CREST HAS 49 CRESTS ABOVE IT AND SINCE 95 PERCENT
\n\u00a0OF THE CRESTS ARE ABOVE IT… IT IS ASSIGNED A 95 PERCENT
\n\u00a0PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDANCE (POE).
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0THE PROBABILITIES CAN BE USED FOR RISK MANAGEMENT BY COMPARING THIS
\n\u00a0YEARS CURRENT TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS WITH
\n\u00a0THOSE OF PAST YEARS USED IN THE HYDRO OUTLOOK. THEY CAN ALSO BE
\n\u00a0USED AS AN INDICATION OF THE RANGE OF CRESTS THAT MAY BE EXPECTED
\n\u00a0DURING THE VALID PERIOD OF THE OUTLOOK.
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0BY PROVIDING A RANGE OF PEAK RIVER LEVEL PROBABILITIES..THE NWS IS
\n\u00a0IS CONTRIBUTING TO THE AREAS DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES THAT HELP
\n\u00a0WITH LONG RANGE FLOOD PLANNING AND RESPONSE READINESS.\u00a0 THIS OUTLOOK
\n\u00a0IS A PART OF NOAA\/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE\/S AHPS (ADVANCED
\n\u00a0HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICES).
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0THIS OUTLOOK WAS PRODUCED USING PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES
\n\u00a0FOR THE YEARS 1978 THROUGH 2002.
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SOURCES…
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0THE AHPS LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED
\n\u00a0NEAR THE END OF EACH MONTH. HOWEVER…SPRING FLOOD AND WATER
\n\u00a0RESOURCES OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED SEVERAL TIMES DURING THE CRITICAL
\n\u00a0SPRING MELT PERIOD…USUALLY ON THURSDAYS BEGINNING IN LATE
\n\u00a0FEBRUARY OR EARLY MARCH AND ENDING IN EARLY APRIL…DEPENDING ON
\n\u00a0THE SPRING FLOODING CONDITIONS.
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0THIS OUTLOOK IS ALSO PRESENTED AS GRAPHS OF THE PROBABILITY OF STAGE
\n\u00a0EXCEEDANCE FOR THE FULL PERIOD AND FOR WEEKLY INTERVALS DURING THE
\n\u00a0PERIOD. THESE GRAPHS…TOGETHER WITH EXPLANATIONS THAT HELP IN
\n\u00a0INTERPRETING THEM ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE NWS BISMARCK AHPS WEB
\n\u00a0PAGE ON THE INTERNET AT:
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 WWW.WEATHER.GOV\/BISMARCK<\/a> OR WEATHER.GOV\/BIS
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 THEN CLICK ON THE “RIVERS AND LAKES AHPS”ON THE TAB ABOVE THE
\n\u00a0MAP…OR ON THE LINK IN THE BLUE-LEFT-HAND BANNER.
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0CURRENT RIVER CONDITIONS FOR ALL FORECAST POINTS WITHIN THE SOURIS
\n\u00a0RIVER BASIN ARE AVAILABLE ON OUR WEB SITE…AS WELL AS THE FORECASTS
\n\u00a0WHEN THE RIVER AT THE FORECAST POINT IS IN OR NEAR FLOOD.
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS…CONTACT THE NWS AT 701-250-4495.
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0THE NEXT HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON 21 MARCH OR AS
\n\u00a0CONDITIONS WARRANT.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Bismarck, ND (KCSi-T.V. News Mar 8, 2013) — The National Weather Service rports, that despite recent snow and its moisture content, the flood outlook as of today, in the James River basin remains low. Current forecasts show less than a 5 percent chance of flooding of any type at Grace […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":2862,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[14,16],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-14175","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-jamestown","category-weathernews"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/csinewsnow.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14175","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/csinewsnow.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/csinewsnow.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/csinewsnow.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/csinewsnow.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=14175"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/csinewsnow.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14175\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":14177,"href":"https:\/\/csinewsnow.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14175\/revisions\/14177"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/csinewsnow.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/2862"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/csinewsnow.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=14175"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/csinewsnow.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=14175"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/csinewsnow.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=14175"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}