{"id":15239,"date":"2013-03-21T14:49:44","date_gmt":"2013-03-21T19:49:44","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/csinewsnow.com\/?p=15239"},"modified":"2013-03-21T14:49:44","modified_gmt":"2013-03-21T19:49:44","slug":"weather-service-flood-outlook-james-river-basin","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/csinewsnow.com\/?p=15239","title":{"rendered":"Weather Service Flood Outlook James River Basin"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/a>NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
\n\u00a01129 AM CDT THU MAR 21 2013<\/span>
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0…SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK…
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0THIS PROBABILISTIC FLOOD OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MISSOURI AND JAMES RIVER
\n\u00a0BASINS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA…COVERING THE TIME PERIOD
\n\u00a0OF OCTOBER THROUGH LATE DECEMBER.
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE HAS THREE SECTIONS…THE FIRST PROVIDES SOME
\n\u00a0TEXT ON HIGHLIGHTS OF THIS PRODUCT AND CONDITIONS AFFECTING LOCAL
\n\u00a0HYDROLOGY. THE SECOND GIVES THE CURRENT AND NORMAL\/HISTORICAL
\n\u00a0CHANCES OF RIVER LOCATIONS REACHING THEIR MINOR…MODERATE…AND
\n\u00a0MAJOR FLOOD CATEGORY. THE FINAL SECTION GIVES THE CURRENT CHANCES
\n\u00a0OF RIVER LOCATIONS RISING ABOVE LISTED RIVER STAGES.
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0…FLOOD OUTLOOK OVERVIEW HIGHLIGHTS…
\n\u00a0NOT ENOUGH HAS CHANGED OVER THE PAST WEEK TO WARRANT REDOING THE
\n\u00a0PROBABILITY TABLES…THE NUMBERS ISSUED LAST WEEK ARE THE SAME AS
\n\u00a0THOSE BELOW. HOWEVER…THE TEXT BELOW REFLECTS LATEST
\n\u00a0CONDITIONS…OBSERVATIONS…AND EXPECTATIONS.
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0…CURRENT CONDITIONS…
\n\u00a0AFTER A SHORT AND VERY WARM SPELL LATE LAST WEEK…AREAS SOUTH AND
\n\u00a0WEST OF BISMARCK SAW A SIGNIFICANT FRACTION OF ITS MODEST SNOWPACK
\n\u00a0MELT AND RUNOFF. THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOW REMAINING IN THE MISSOURI
\n\u00a0RIVER BASIN TENDS TO BE THAT NEAREST LAKE SAKAKAWEA FROM BASICALLY
\n\u00a0WILLISTON DOWN THROUGH GARRISON ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LAKE. THE
\n\u00a0JAMES RIVER BASIN HAS ALSO RETAINED MOST OF ITS SNOW WITH VERY
\n\u00a0LITTLE MELT HAVING OCCURED SO FAR THIS YEAR. IN THE NORTHERNMOST
\n\u00a0AREAS…VERY LITTLE PROGRESS HAS BEEN MADE IN THE RIPENING
\n\u00a0OF THE SNOWPACK AND SNOWPACK CONDITIONS ARE MORE SIMILAR TO WHAT IS
\n\u00a0COMMONLY SEEN IN JANUARY AND FEBRUARY THAN WHAT IS NORMAL FOR THIS
\n\u00a0CLOSE TO APRIL.
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0…WEATHER OUTLOOK…
\n\u00a0AN INCOMING SYSTEM TODAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WILL MOST LIKELY
\n\u00a0AFFECT WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE IN
\n\u00a0THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE STATE WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES FAVORED IN
\n\u00a0THE SOUTHWEST. AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH…THE 6 TO 10 AND 8
\n\u00a0TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS SUGGEST BELOW NORMAL TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
\n\u00a0WITH BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION. THIS IS FAVORED TO TRANSITION INTO
\n\u00a0A NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURE REGIME FOR APRIL WITH A SLIGHTLY ABOVE
\n\u00a0NORMAL PRECIPITATION PATTERN.
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0…SUMMARY OF HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS…
\n\u00a0MOST RIVERS AND STREAMS REMAIN ICE COVERED. NOT ENOUGH WARM
\n\u00a0TEMPERATURES OR RUNOFF IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE WEEKS TO
\n\u00a0EFFECTIVELY REMOVE THE ICE.
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0…LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC RIVER OUTLOOK BY FLOOD CATEGORY…
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0THE TABLE BELOW GIVES BOTH THE CURRENT CHANCES (CS) AND THE
\n\u00a0NORMAL\/HISTORICAL CHANCES (HS) FOR EXCEEDING THE MINOR…MODERATE
\n\u00a0AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES AT THE RIVER FORECAST POINT LOCATIONS DURING
\n\u00a0THE VALID PERIOD OF THIS OUTLOOK.
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 JAMES AND MISSOURI RIVER BASINS
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR…MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 FROM\u00a0 3\/9\/2013 TO 6\/7\/2013 Z
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0TABLE 1\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 : CHANCES OF EXCEEDING FLOOD
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 : CATEGORY IN PERCENT (%)
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 CATEGORICAL\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 :
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 FLOOD STAGES (FT)\u00a0 :\u00a0 MINOR\u00a0\u00a0 MODERATE\u00a0 MAJOR
\n\u00a0LOCATION\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 MINOR\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 MOD\u00a0\u00a0 MAJOR :\u00a0 CS HS\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 CS HS\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 CS HS
\n\u00a0——–\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 —— —— —— : — —\u00a0 — —\u00a0 — —
\n\u00a0LITTLE MUDDY CREEK…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 WILLISTON\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 10.0\u00a0\u00a0 12.0\u00a0\u00a0 14.0 :\u00a0 22\u00a0 63\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0 28\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0 10
\n\u00a0LITTLE MISSOURI RIVER…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 MARMARTH\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 18.0\u00a0\u00a0 23.0\u00a0\u00a0 30.0 :\u00a0 5\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0 5\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0 5
\n\u00a0\u00a0 MEDORA\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 15.0\u00a0\u00a0 18.0\u00a0\u00a0 20.0 :\u00a0 5\u00a0\u00a0 7\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0\u00a0 6\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0\u00a0 5
\n\u00a0\u00a0 WATFORD CITY\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 20.0\u00a0\u00a0 24.0\u00a0\u00a0 30.0 :\u00a0 5\u00a0 5\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0 5\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0 5
\n\u00a0KNIFE RIVER…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 MANNING\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 15.0\u00a0\u00a0 17.0\u00a0\u00a0 20.0 :\u00a0 5\u00a0 18\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0 5\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0 5
\n\u00a0SPRING CREEK…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 ZAP\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 14.0\u00a0\u00a0 18.0\u00a0\u00a0 20.0 :\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0 22\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0\u00a0 7\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0 5
\n\u00a0KNIFE RIVER…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 HAZEN\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 21.0\u00a0\u00a0 24.0\u00a0\u00a0 25.0 :\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0 25\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0 11\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0\u00a0 8
\n\u00a0HEART RIVER…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 MANDAN\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 17.0\u00a0\u00a0 23.0\u00a0\u00a0 28.0 :\u00a0 5\u00a0\u00a0 6\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0 5\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0 5
\n\u00a0APPLE CREEK…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 MENOKEN\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 15.0\u00a0\u00a0 16.0\u00a0\u00a0 17.0 :\u00a0 32\u00a0 55\u00a0\u00a0 18\u00a0 47\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0 25
\n\u00a0CANNONBALL RIVER…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 REGENT\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 22.0\u00a0\u00a0 24.0\u00a0\u00a0 26.0 :\u00a0 5\u00a0 5\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0 5\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0 5
\n\u00a0CEDAR CREEK…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 RALEIGH\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 12.0\u00a0\u00a0 14.0\u00a0\u00a0 16.0 :\u00a0 5\u00a0 5\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0 5\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0 5
\n\u00a0CANNONBALL RIVER…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 BREIEN\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 10.0\u00a0\u00a0 20.0\u00a0\u00a0 23.0 :\u00a0 20\u00a0 38\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0 5\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0 5
\n\u00a0BEAVER CREEK…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 LINTON\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 9.0\u00a0\u00a0 11.0\u00a0\u00a0 13.0 :\u00a0 34\u00a0 38\u00a0\u00a0 27\u00a0 29\u00a0\u00a0 14\u00a0 24
\n\u00a0JAMES RIVER…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 GRACE CITY\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 12.0\u00a0\u00a0 14.0\u00a0\u00a0 15.0 :\u00a0 5\u00a0 10\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0\u00a0 6\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0\u00a0 5
\n\u00a0PIPESTEM CREEK…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 PINGREE\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 9.0\u00a0\u00a0 11.0\u00a0\u00a0 13.0 :\u00a0\u00a0 7\u00a0 12\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0\u00a0 6\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0 5
\n\u00a0JAMES RIVER…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 LAMOURE\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 14.0\u00a0\u00a0 16.0\u00a0\u00a0 18.0 :\u00a0 5\u00a0\u00a0 9\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0\u00a0 5\u00a0 5
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0LEGEND:
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 CS\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (OUTLOOK FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS)
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 HS\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 HISTORICAL SIMULATION\u00a0 ( ”\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 ”\u00a0 NORMAL\u00a0 CONDITIONS)
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 FT\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 FEET ABOVE GAGE ZERO DATUM
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0…LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK BY RIVER STAGE…
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0THE TABLE BELOW GIVES THE CURRENT 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT CHANCES FOR
\n\u00a0EXCEEDING RIVER STAGES AT THE RIVER FORECAST POINT LOCATIONS DURING
\n\u00a0THE VALID PERIOD OF THIS OUTLOOK.
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0EXAMPLE: DURING THE VALID TIME OF THIS OUTLOOK…THERE IS A
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR THE LITTLE MUDDY CREEK AT\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 WILLISTON TO RISE ABOVE 8.3 FEET AND ONLY A 10 PERCENT\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 CHANCE THAT IT WILL RISE ABOVE 10.8 FEET.
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 JAMES AND MISSOURI RIVER BASINS
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 PROBABILITIES FOR EXCEEDING LISTED RIVER STAGES
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 FROM\u00a0 3\/9\/2013 TO 6\/7\/2013
\n\u00a0TABLE 2
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0LOCATION\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 95%\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 90%\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 75%\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 50%\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 25%\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 10%\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 05%
\n\u00a0——–\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 —— —— —— —— —— —— ——
\n\u00a0LITTLE MUDDY CREEK…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 WILLISTON\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 6.1\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 6.5\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 7.3\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 8.3\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 9.8\u00a0\u00a0 10.8\u00a0\u00a0 10.8
\n\u00a0LITTLE MISSOURI RIVER…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 MARMARTH\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.8\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.8\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.9\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 3.0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 3.9\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 6.4\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 9.9
\n\u00a0\u00a0 MEDORA\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.9\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.9\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2.1\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 3.3\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 4.5\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 7.3\u00a0\u00a0 10.4
\n\u00a0\u00a0 WATFORD CITY\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 -0.9\u00a0\u00a0 -0.5\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 0.3\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.1\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2.5\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 4.6\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 6.4
\n\u00a0KNIFE RIVER…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 MANNING\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 6.2\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 6.2\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 6.2\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 7.3\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 8.9\u00a0\u00a0 10.1\u00a0\u00a0 10.7
\n\u00a0SPRING CREEK…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 ZAP\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 5.1\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 5.2\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 5.6\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 6.4\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 9.7\u00a0\u00a0 11.1\u00a0\u00a0 14.5
\n\u00a0KNIFE RIVER…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 HAZEN\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.3\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2.0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 3.6\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 6.6\u00a0\u00a0 10.7\u00a0\u00a0 16.0\u00a0\u00a0 21.0
\n\u00a0HEART RIVER…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 MANDAN\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.4\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2.0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 3.0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 5.6\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 7.6\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 9.7
\n\u00a0APPLE CREEK…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 MENOKEN\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 5.6\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 5.8\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 6.7\u00a0\u00a0 11.5\u00a0\u00a0 15.7\u00a0\u00a0 16.3\u00a0\u00a0 17.0
\n\u00a0CANNONBALL RIVER…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 REGENT\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 3.2\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 3.3\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 4.6\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 6.7\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 8.3\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 9.3\u00a0\u00a0 10.4
\n\u00a0CEDAR CREEK…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 RALEIGH\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2.3\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2.3\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2.8\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 4.3\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 5.4\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 6.4\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 6.8
\n\u00a0CANNONBALL RIVER…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 BREIEN\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 5.1\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 5.1\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 5.6\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 7.3\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 9.6\u00a0\u00a0 11.6\u00a0\u00a0 13.2
\n\u00a0BEAVER CREEK…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 LINTON\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 6.6\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 6.8\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 6.9\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 8.0\u00a0\u00a0 12.0\u00a0\u00a0 13.6\u00a0\u00a0 14.6
\n\u00a0JAMES RIVER…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 GRACE CITY\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 4.4\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 4.5\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 4.8\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 5.1\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 5.6\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 6.7\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 8.1
\n\u00a0PIPESTEM CREEK…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 PINGREE\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 5.1\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 5.1\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 5.2\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 5.6\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 6.7\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 7.8\u00a0\u00a0 10.1
\n\u00a0JAMES RIVER…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 LAMOURE\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 7.1\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 7.1\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 7.3\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 7.6\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 8.2\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 9.7\u00a0\u00a0 10.4
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0…THE OUTLOOK PRODUCTION PROCESS…
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0THIS LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK IS BASED ON A SERIES OF PEAK
\n\u00a0RIVER LEVELS OR CRESTS TAKEN FROM THE FORECAST HYDROGRAPH RESULTS
\n\u00a0OF THE NWS ENSEMBLE STREAMFLOW PREDICTION MODEL (ESP). THE MODEL
\n\u00a0IS RUN FOR MULTIPLE SCENARIOS STARTING AT CURRENT RIVER…SNOW AND
\n\u00a0SOIL CONDITIONS AND USING 25 OR MORE YEARS OF PAST PRECIPITATION AND
\n\u00a0TEMPERATURE CONDITIONS IN THE HISTORICAL RECORD. THESE CRESTS CAN
\n\u00a0THEN BE RANKED FROM LOWEST TO HIGHEST…AND ASSIGNED AN
\n\u00a0EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITY. FOR EXAMPLE…FOR A SERIES OF 50 YEARS…
\n\u00a0THE LOWEST RANKED CREST HAS 49 CRESTS ABOVE IT AND SINCE 95 PERCENT
\n\u00a0OF THE CRESTS ARE ABOVE IT… IT IS ASSIGNED A 95 PERCENT
\n\u00a0PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDANCE (POE).
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0THE PROBABILITIES CAN BE USED FOR RISK MANAGEMENT BY COMPARING THIS
\n\u00a0YEARS CURRENT TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS WITH
\n\u00a0THOSE OF PAST YEARS USED IN THE HYDRO OUTLOOK. THEY CAN ALSO BE
\n\u00a0USED AS AN INDICATION OF THE RANGE OF CRESTS THAT MAY BE EXPECTED
\n\u00a0DURING THE VALID PERIOD OF THE OUTLOOK.
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0BY PROVIDING A RANGE OF PEAK RIVER LEVEL PROBABILITIES..THE NWS IS
\n\u00a0IS CONTRIBUTING TO THE AREAS DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES THAT HELP
\n\u00a0WITH LONG RANGE FLOOD PLANNING AND RESPONSE READINESS.\u00a0 THIS OUTLOOK
\n\u00a0IS A PART OF NOAA\/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE\/S AHPS (ADVANCED
\n\u00a0HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICES).
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0THIS OUTLOOK WAS PRODUCED USING PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES
\n\u00a0FOR THE YEARS 1978 THROUGH 2002.
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SOURCES…
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0THE AHPS LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED
\n\u00a0NEAR THE END OF EACH MONTH. HOWEVER…SPRING FLOOD AND WATER
\n\u00a0RESOURCES OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED SEVERAL TIMES DURING THE CRITICAL
\n\u00a0SPRING MELT PERIOD…USUALLY ON THURSDAYS BEGINNING IN LATE
\n\u00a0FEBRUARY OR EARLY MARCH AND ENDING IN EARLY APRIL…DEPENDING ON
\n\u00a0THE SPRING FLOODING CONDITIONS.
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0THIS OUTLOOK IS ALSO PRESENTED AS GRAPHS OF THE PROBABILITY OF STAGE
\n\u00a0EXCEEDANCE FOR THE FULL PERIOD AND FOR WEEKLY INTERVALS DURING THE
\n\u00a0PERIOD. THESE GRAPHS…TOGETHER WITH EXPLANATIONS THAT HELP IN
\n\u00a0INTERPRETING THEM ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE NWS BISMARCK AHPS WEB
\n\u00a0PAGE ON THE INTERNET AT:
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 WWW.WEATHER.GOV\/BISMARCK<\/a> OR WEATHER.GOV\/BIS
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 THEN CLICK ON THE “RIVERS AND LAKES AHPS”ON THE TAB ABOVE THE MAP
\n\u00a0\u00a0 …OR ON THE LINK IN THE BLUE-LEFT-HAND BANNER.
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0CURRENT RIVER CONDITIONS FOR ALL FORECAST POINTS WITHIN THE SOURIS
\n\u00a0RIVER BASIN ARE AVAILABLE ON OUR WEB SITE…AS WELL AS THE FORECASTS
\n\u00a0WHEN THE RIVER AT THE FORECAST POINT IS IN OR NEAR FLOOD.
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS…CONTACT THE NWS AT 701-250-4495.
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED MONTHLY THROUGHOUT
\n\u00a0THE REST OF THE YEAR DURING THE LATER PART OF THE MONTH OR AS
\n\u00a0CONDITIONS WARRANT.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND \u00a01129 AM CDT THU MAR 21 2013 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0…SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK… \u00a0 \u00a0THIS PROBABILISTIC FLOOD OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MISSOURI AND JAMES RIVER \u00a0BASINS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA…COVERING THE TIME PERIOD \u00a0OF OCTOBER THROUGH LATE DECEMBER. \u00a0 \u00a0THE FOLLOWING […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":2862,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[16],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-15239","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-weathernews"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/csinewsnow.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15239","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/csinewsnow.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/csinewsnow.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/csinewsnow.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/csinewsnow.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=15239"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/csinewsnow.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15239\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":15240,"href":"https:\/\/csinewsnow.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15239\/revisions\/15240"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/csinewsnow.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/2862"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/csinewsnow.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=15239"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/csinewsnow.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=15239"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/csinewsnow.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=15239"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}