National Weather Service<\/p>\n
March 12, 2020<\/p>\n
This Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook is for the Missouri …Flood Outlook Highlights…<\/p>\n In the James River Basin, only modest amounts of the SWE have been removed from the countryside. Even if visually the snowpack appears to be considerably depleted, the runoff has not yet reached Pipestem Creek or the James River. Much of the meltwater generated is still trapped on the countryside and is expected to begin showing up in earnest during the latter half of March. Downstream of Jamestown has seen only modest amounts of water making its way into the James and Maple Rivers. While it would have The Prairie Pothole region, including at least parts of Sheridan, East of the Missouri River and south of I-94, Apple Creek near The probability of flooding across western and central North Dakota In the northwest corner of North Dakota, streams like the Little Farther to the south and west of the Missouri River, forecast points South of I-94 and still west of the Missouri River, forecast points <\/p>\n And lastly, the Missouri River itself.\u00a0\u00a0 With little plains and Overall, while western and central North Dakota has thus far been <\/p>\n …Current Conditions… …Weather Outlook… National Weather Service March 12, 2020 This Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook is for the Missouri and James River basins of North Dakota and covers the period from mid-March through mid-June. This outlook is the last update in the Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook series. After this update, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":11547,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[25,16],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-193913","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-featured","category-weathernews"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/csinewsnow.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/193913","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/csinewsnow.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/csinewsnow.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/csinewsnow.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/csinewsnow.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=193913"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/csinewsnow.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/193913\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":193914,"href":"https:\/\/csinewsnow.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/193913\/revisions\/193914"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/csinewsnow.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/11547"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/csinewsnow.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=193913"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/csinewsnow.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=193913"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/csinewsnow.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=193913"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
\nand James River basins<\/strong> of North Dakota and covers the period from
\nmid-March through mid-June.<\/strong> This outlook is the last update in the
\nSpring Flood and Water Resources Outlook series. After this update,
\nthe NWS will revert back to the regular monthly issuance on the
\nfourth Thursday of each month.<\/p>\n
\nbeen beneficial to see the latest warm spell last a few more days to
\nhelp remove more SWE from the countryside, it would appear that this
\narea will now be entering a week or more of suspended animation.
\nThis suspension of the melt and potential for adding more SWE over
\nthe coming days are part of what is keeping the risk for flooding
\nsubstantially elevated at points along the lower James River in
\nNorth Dakota.<\/p>\n
\nWells, Kidder, Stutsman, Logan, McIntosh and Dickey counties have
\nenough SWE to suggest overland flooding will continue to be a
\nconcern going into spring.<\/p>\n
\nMenoken is currently seeing higher water levels due to the recent
\nloss of the snowpack. While the cooler weather is likely to keep
\nApple Creek below flood stage, it will be sensitive to any rainfall
\nover the coming few weeks. Beaver Creek near Linton has been
\nrelatively quiet thus far even though some runoff is starting to be
\nobserved at the gage and like Apple Creek, it will need some
\nrainfall in the near term if it wants to make a run at even minor
\nflooding. Other area streams such as Burnt Creek, Hay Creek, and
\nPainted Woods Creek have experienced at least some runoff and are
\nconsidered at a near normal to below normal risk of flooding due to
\nthe wet soils.<\/p>\n
\nhas generally held steady or trended slightly upward. The upward
\nrevisions are generally associated with streams that are currently
\nreceiving substantial runoff from snowmelt over that past couple of
\nweeks. These streams are very susceptible to minor flooding with
\nonly modest amounts of additional rainfall over the near term.
\nHowever, these risks will fall quickly as the streams reach their
\ninitial crest in the coming week or two. Other streams, such as the
\nCannonball River, are also just very susceptible to minor flooding
\nduring early spring rains.<\/p>\n
\nMuddy River have a somewhat below normal, but relatively high
\nprobability of minor flooding. This risk is mostly centered around
\nthose streams susceptibility to heavy spring rains as snow water
\nequivalent (SWE) is not a concern in that area of the state. Other
\nsmall streams in the area, such as the White Earth River, Little
\nKnife River, and Deep Creek in McLean County have a below normal
\nrisk of flooding going forward.<\/p>\n
\non the Knife River and Spring Creek are now below normal for spring
\nflood risk. Again, this is due to the the early loss of most of the
\nregion`s SWE and any significant flooding from this point on will
\ncertainly have a heavy rain component.<\/p>\n
\nand small streams like the Heart and Cannonball rivers along with
\nCedar creek are now considered near normal to below normal risk for
\nreaching Minor flood stage. Again, the early loss of the snowpack in
\nthese watersheds is driving the risk down even though wet soils
\ncontinue to be a potential problem. This tends to be true as well
\nfor the Green River, Big Muddy, and Sweet Briar Creek watersheds.<\/p>\n
\nperfectly average mountain snowpack, the Yellowstone and Missouri
\nrivers of western North Dakota are right around normal risk of
\nminor flooding. The slightly enhanced risk observed in the
\nprobability tables is more a reflection of current conditions where
\nice cover and modest runoff are combining to cause minor flooding
\nwest of Williston. Once the ice cover is gone, near normal risk of
\nhigh water will hold through the spring and be mostly controlled by
\nthe rate of melt in the mountain snowpack. Below Garrison Dam, the
\nMissouri River has lost its ice cover all the way down through the
\nBismarck\/Mandan area. With the loss of ice cover, risk of flooding
\nin this stretch is at a minimum and would require very significant
\nspring rains.<\/p>\n
\nunder a very favorable weather pattern for producing a gentle melt,
\nsome of that appears destined for change. The current weather
\noutlook is suggesting a shift towards a much more active, cooler,
\nand wetter pattern during the next couple weeks. Mid range outlooks
\nsuggest that will be followed by a stretch of above normal
\ntemperatures towards the last week of March and early April.\u00a0Ice jams
\ndefy mathematical predictions, but are known to increase during
\nearly and rapid spring runoffs where the ice becomes mobilized, only
\nto get stuck at some downstream constriction such as bridges and
\nbends in the river. The slow and gentle melt much of western and
\ncentral North Dakota has experienced thus far would suggest the
\nrisk of ice related high water is fading, and fading quickly.<\/p>\n
\nFrozen and wetter than normal soils remain a concern across the
\nentire state. However, SWE is only a true concern in the James River
\nbasin. Warm weather over the past couple of weeks has removed most
\nof the SWE west of the Highway 83 corridor. Not surprisingly, some
\nstreams have already experienced minor flooding and several others
\nare relatively high due to the runoff. Ice jams have not yet been a
\nproblem in western and central North Dakota, most likely due to the
\nmodest amount of runoff and gentle melt conditions. So far most
\nstreams have not risen enough to mobilize the ice cover and this is
\nallowing the ice to slowly degrade in place.<\/p>\n
\nThe near term 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks have a strong signal for
\nbelow normal temperatures and slightly above normal precipitation.
\nLooking farther into the future, the week 3-4 outlooks suggest the
\ncooler and wetter than normal pattern will end during the third
\nweek of March where an above normal temperature signal would put
\ndaytime highs well up into the realm of restarting the snowmelt.
\nAnd lastly, the three-month outlooks for March, April, and May
\nreflect an equal chance for above normal, near normal, and below
\nnormal temperature and precipitation.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"