{"id":28408,"date":"2013-09-25T10:00:53","date_gmt":"2013-09-25T15:00:53","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/csinewsnow.com\/?p=28408"},"modified":"2013-09-27T09:45:19","modified_gmt":"2013-09-27T14:45:19","slug":"devils-lake-stump-lake-flood-potential-update","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/csinewsnow.com\/?p=28408","title":{"rendered":"Devils Lake, Stump Lake Flood Potential Update"},"content":{"rendered":"

0855 AM CDT FRI SEP 27 2013
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0…DEVILS LAKE OUTLOOK FOR FLOOD POTENTIAL…
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 DEVILS AND STUMP LAKES
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 FROM SEPTEMBER 30, 2013 TO DECEMBER 29, 2013\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0\u00a0 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS PROVIDING MONTHLY UPDATES OF
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 THE LONG-RANGE OUTLOOK FOR BOTH HIGH AND LOW WATER IN DEVILS
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 AND STUMP LAKES. THESE AND THEIR ASSOCIATED WEB GRAPHICS
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 ARE VALID FOR THE PERIOD…
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 FROM SEPTEMBER 30, 2013 TO DECEMBER 29, 2013.
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0\u00a0 STARTING WITH THIS OUTLOOK, IT WILL NOW USE 63 YEARS (1949-2011)
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 OF PAST WEATHER…TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION…FOR THE
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 ENSEMBLE PREDICTIVE HYDROGRAPHS USED IN CALCULATING THE
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING A RIVER LEVEL FOR THE VALID PERIOD
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 OF THE OUTLOOK. BEGINNING IN JANUARY OF 2014…THE OUTLOOK
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 WILL INCLUDE THE WEATHER FOR 2012 INTO THE ENSEMBLE HYDROGRAPHS.
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0. CHANCES OF DEVILS AND STUMP LAKES RISING ABOVE GIVEN LAKE LEVELS…
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0\u00a0 THE PROBABILTY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED LAKE LEVEL IS THAT
\n\u00a0\u00a0 PERCENTAGE OF ALL MODEL CASES RUN WERE ABOVE THAT SPECIFIED
\n\u00a0\u00a0 FOR THE WHOLE VALID PERIOD OF THE OUTLOOK.
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 FOR EXAMPLE THE THERE IS A 50 PER CENT CHANCE THAT DEVILS LAKE
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 WILL RISE ABOVE 1452.5 FEET DURING THE VALID PERIOD AND ONLY A
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 5 PER CENT CHANCE THAT IT WILL RISE ABOVE 1452.5 FEET.
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 FROM SEPTEMBER 30, 2013 TO DECEMBER 29, 2013\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0LOCATION\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 95%\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 90%\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 75%\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 50%\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 25%\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 10%\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 05%
\n\u00a0——–\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 —— —— —— —— —— —— ——
\n\u00a0DEVILS LAKE…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 CREEL BAY\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1452.5 1452.5 1452.5 1452.5 1452.5 1452.5 1452.5
\n\u00a0STUMP LAKE…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 EAST STUMP LAKE\u00a0\u00a0 1452.5 1452.5 1452.5 1452.5 1452.5 1452.5 1452.5
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0. CURRENT AND PREVIOUS RECORD HIGH LAKE LEVELS…
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0 *\u00a0 THE CURRENT HEIGHT OF DEVILS LAKE AT CREEL BAY IS 1452.5 FEET
\n\u00a0 *\u00a0 THE CURRENT HEIGHT OF\u00a0 STUMP LAKE NEAR LAKOTA\u00a0 IS 1452.5 FEET
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0 *\u00a0 THE MOST RECENT USGS PROVISIONAL RECORD DAILY AVERAGE HEIGHT
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 FOR DEVILS LAKE AT THE CREEL BAY GAGE:
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 …1454.30 FEET ON\u00a0\u00a0 JUNE 27 OF 2011
\n\u00a0 *\u00a0 PREVIOUS RECORDS:
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 …1452.05 FEET ON\u00a0\u00a0 JUNE 27 OF 2010
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 …1450.93 FEET ON\u00a0\u00a0 JUNE 27 OF 2009
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 …1449.20 FEET ON\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 MAY\u00a0 9 OF 2006
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 …1449.18 FEET ON\u00a0\u00a0 JUNE 17 OF 2004
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 …1449.17 FEET ON AUGUST\u00a0 2 OF 2005
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0 * FOR MORE HIGH WATER MARKS…SEE THE USGS FLOOD TRACKING CHARTS AT:
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 HTTP:\/\/ND.WATER.USGS.GOV\/FLOODTRACKING<\/a>
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0. CHANCES OF DEVILS AND STUMP LAKES FALLING BELOW GIVEN LAKE LEVELS…
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0\u00a0 THE PROBABILITY OF NOT EXCEEDING THE LISTED LAKE LEVEL IS THAT
\n\u00a0\u00a0 PERCENTAGE OF ALL MODEL CASES RUN WERE BELOW THAT SPECIFIED
\n\u00a0\u00a0 FOR THE WHOLE VALID PERIOD OF THE OUTLOOK.
\n\u00a0\u00a0
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 FOR EXAMPLE THE THERE IS A 50 PER CENT CHANCE THAT DEVILS LAKE
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 WILL FALL BELOW 1451.7 FEET DURING THE VALID PERIOD AND ONLY A
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 5 PER CENT CHANCE THAT IT WILL FALL BELOW 1451.6 FEET.
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 PROBABILITIES FOR NON-EXCEEDING LISTED LAKE LEVELS
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 FROM 9\/30\/2013 TO 12\/29\/2013\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0LOCATION\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 95%\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 90%\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 75%\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 50%\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 25%\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 10%\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 05%
\n\u00a0——–\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 —— —— —— —— —— —— ——
\n\u00a0DEVILS LAKE…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 CREEL BAY\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1452.1 1451.9 1451.8 1451.7 1451.7 1451.6 1451.6
\n\u00a0STUMP LAKE…..
\n\u00a0\u00a0 EAST STUMP LAKE\u00a0\u00a0 1452.1 1451.9 1451.8 1451.7 1451.7 1451.6 1451.6
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION…
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0WIND AND WAVE FORECASTS FOR DEVILS AND STUMP LAKES ARE AVAILABLE FOR
\n\u00a0A SEVEN DAY PERIOD WHEN THE LAKES ARE SUFFICIENTLY ICE-FREE AT:
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV\/FGF\/HYDRO\/LAKE-FCST.PHP<\/a>
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0ADDITIONALLY…7 DAY LAKE EVAPORATION FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE
\n\u00a0DURING THE GROWING SEASON AT:
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV\/FGF\/CLIMATE\/FARM-INFO.PHP<\/a>
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0THE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK IS BASED ON HIGH AND LOW LAKE
\n\u00a0LEVELS THAT WERE CALCULATED FOR THE SPECIFIED PERIOD USING MULTIPLE
\n\u00a0SCENARIOS FROM 60 YEARS (1949-2009) OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
\n\u00a0DATA AND CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE LAKE, SNOWCOVER\u00a0 (IN WINTER)…
\n\u00a0AND SOIL MOISTURE…AS WELL AS THE SEASONAL CLIMATE OUTLOOK FOR
\n\u00a0TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION PROVIDED BY THE NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION
\n\u00a0CENTER, DETAILS OF THE CLIMATE OUTLOOK USED ARE AVAILABLE
\n\u00a0FROM THE WEB AT:
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 HTTP:\/\/WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV<\/a>
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF LAKE LEVEL PROBABILITIES, THE
\n\u00a0AMOUNT OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN
\n\u00a0BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE PART OF NOAAS
\n\u00a0NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICES ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICES
\n\u00a0(AHPS).
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0THIS OUTLOOK IS ALSO PRESENTED AS PROBABILITY GRAPHS OF LAKE HEIGHT
\n\u00a0FOR THE FULL PERIOD AS WELL AS WEEKLY PROBABILITIES. THE OUTLOOK
\n\u00a0GRAPHICS AND EXPLANATIONS THAT HELP IN INTERPRETING THESE OUTLOOKS
\n\u00a0ARE AVAILABLE FROM…
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0\u00a0 THE NWS GRAND FORKS AHPS PAGE ON THE INTERNET AT:
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 WEATHER.GOV\/GRANDFORKS
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 CLICK ON RIVERS AND LAKES AHPS LINK\u00a0
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0OUTLOOK GRAPHICS OF THE PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING VARIOUS LAKE LEVELS
\n\u00a0FOR DEVILS AND STUMP LAKES ARE ALSO ON OUR WEB SITE. THEY SHOULD BE
\n\u00a0AVAILABLE BY 9 AM FRIDAY. MONTHLY PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE USUALLY
\n\u00a0ISSUED ON THE FRIDAY OF THE WEEK FOLLOWING THE FIRST THURSDAY AFTER
\n\u00a0THE 15TH OF THE MONTH…USUALLY THE THIRD OR FOURTH WEEK OF THE MONTH.
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS…CONTACT THE NWS AT 701-772-0720<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

0855 AM CDT FRI SEP 27 2013 \u00a0 \u00a0…DEVILS LAKE OUTLOOK FOR FLOOD POTENTIAL… \u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 DEVILS AND STUMP LAKES \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 FROM SEPTEMBER 30, 2013 TO DECEMBER 29, 2013\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS PROVIDING MONTHLY UPDATES OF \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 THE LONG-RANGE OUTLOOK […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":6169,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-28408","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-valley-city"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/csinewsnow.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28408","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/csinewsnow.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/csinewsnow.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/csinewsnow.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/csinewsnow.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=28408"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/csinewsnow.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28408\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":28410,"href":"https:\/\/csinewsnow.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28408\/revisions\/28410"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/csinewsnow.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/6169"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/csinewsnow.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=28408"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/csinewsnow.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=28408"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/csinewsnow.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=28408"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}