PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
\n\u00a0NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND<\/p>\n
…FLOOD OUTLOOK OVERVIEW HIGHLIGHTS…<\/p>\n
OVERALL THE FLOOD RISK ACROSS THE MISSOURI AND JAMES RIVER BASINS<\/p>\n
REMAINS NEAR NORMAL TO SOMEWHAT ELEVATED. DESPITE RECENT YEARS WHERE<\/p>\n
THE GREATEST CONTRIBUTOR TO FLOOD RISK WAS READILY APPARENT IN THE<\/p>\n
SNOWPACK ON THE GROUND…THIS YEAR THE RISK COMES PRIMARILY FROM THE<\/p>\n
FROZEN WET SOILS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND THE<\/p>\n
POSSIBILITY OF SPRING RAINS ON THOSE NEARLY IMPERMEABLE SOILS. THE<\/p>\n
ONE RIVER WITH A GREATER THAN NORMAL RISK OF MINOR FLOODING NOT DUE<\/p>\n
PRIMARILY TO THE SOIL CONDITIONS IS THE LITTLE MISSOURI RIVER WHICH<\/p>\n
HAS AN ABOVE NORMAL SNOWPACK IN ITS HEADWATERS.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
…CURRENT CONDITIONS…<\/p>\n
SOIL MOISTURE AND FROST DEPTH ARE HIGHLY UNUSUAL ACROSS MOST OF<\/p>\n
NORTH DAKOTA THIS YEAR. AN UNUSUALLY WET FALL AND EARLY COLD WEATHER<\/p>\n
COMBINED TO CREATE DEEP FROST AND NEARLY IMPERMEABLE SOILS OVER<\/p>\n
LARGE AREAS. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SITES ARE RECORDING 49 INCHES<\/p>\n
OF FROST IN THE BISMARCK AREA TO OVER 57 INCHES IN THE WILLISTON<\/p>\n
AREA. OTHER RELIABLE REPORTS OF FROZEN WATER LINES AT DEPTHS OF 6.5<\/p>\n
FEET SUGGEST THESE DEEPER FROST DEPTHS ARE NOT ISOLATED AND<\/p>\n
REPRESENT A GREAT PORTION OF NORTH DAKOTA. RIVERS GENERALLY WENT<\/p>\n
INTO WINTER ON THE HIGH RANGE OF NORMAL FOR WATER LEVELS. THIS HAS<\/p>\n
RESULTED IN GREATER THAN NORMAL VOLUMES OF ICE IN THE RIVERS AND<\/p>\n
STREAMS. SNOWPACK AND MOST IMPORTANTLY…ITS WATER CONTENT…IS<\/p>\n
GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN AND WESTERN NORTH<\/p>\n
DAKOTA. SMALL AREAS OF OVER 2 INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT ARE PRESENT<\/p>\n
IN THE APPLE CREEK…BEAVER CREEK…AND UPPER JAMES RIVER BASIN. THE<\/p>\n
REST OF THE REGION IS GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH OR LESS OF WATER<\/p>\n
EQUIVALENT ON AVERAGE.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
…WEATHER OUTLOOK…<\/p>\n
OVER THE COMING WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK…MUCH OF SOUTHERN<\/p>\n
AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA ARE GOING TO EXPERIENCE TEMPERATURES WELL<\/p>\n
ABOVE FREEZING FOR DAYTIME HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS RIGHT AROUND<\/p>\n
FREEZING. THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE BY THE<\/p>\n
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS NO EXPECTATION OF SIGNIFICANT<\/p>\n
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT WEEK ALTHOUGH MODEST AMOUNTS ARE<\/p>\n
POSSIBLE. IN THE LONGER TERM ONE MONTH OUTLOOKS…THE REGION IS<\/p>\n
FAVORED FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL<\/p>\n
PRECIPITATION. AS ONE LOOKS EVEN LONGER TERM AT THE THREE MONTH<\/p>\n
OUTLOOKS…BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE STILL FAVORED WITH AN EQUAL<\/p>\n
CHANCE OF BELOW NORMAL…NORMAL…OR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
…SUMMARY OF HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS…<\/p>\n
RIVERS ARE GENERALLY COVERED IN A THICKER THAN NORMAL…AND STILL<\/p>\n
COMPETENT SHEET OF ICE. ALL DAMS HAVE THEIR FULL FLOOD CONTROL<\/p>\n
STORAGE AVAILABLE TO THEM EVEN THOUGH SOME…SUCH AS DICKINSON DAM<\/p>\n
AND HEART BUTTE DAM…ARE NOTABLY ABOVE THEIR AVERAGE RESERVOIR<\/p>\n
ELEVATION FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
…NEAR TERM EXPECTATIONS FOR 8 MARCH TO 12 MARCH…TEMPERATURES<\/p>\n
ABOVE FREEZING…EVEN FOR ONLY TWO TO FOUR DAYS…WILL KICK OFF THE<\/p>\n
SPRING MELT THIS WEEKEND IN AREAS WITH RELATIVELY THIN SNOWCOVER.<\/p>\n
AREAS WITH THICKER SNOW COVER WILL RESIST THE MELT FOR THE FIRST<\/p>\n
NICE DAY OR TWO BEFORE PRODUCING APPRECIABLE RUNOFF…IN PARTICULAR<\/p>\n
THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER BASIN IS MOST LIKELY TO RESIST THE EARLY<\/p>\n
EFFECTS OF THE WARM WEATHER AS THE THICKER SNOWPACK WILL TAKE MORE<\/p>\n
TIME TO WARM…RIPEN…AND MELT. OVERALL…RIVERS AND STREAMS ACROSS<\/p>\n
THE REGION ARE STILL HOLDING AN ABOVE NORMAL VOLUME OF ICE. EVEN AS<\/p>\n
MANY LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO START RECEIVING SNOWMELT RUNOFF…THE<\/p>\n
RUNOFF VOLUMES ARE NOT LIKELY GOING TO BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT UNDUE<\/p>\n
CONCERNS OF ICE JAM RELATED FLOODING IN THE SHORT TERM. THE MOST<\/p>\n
LIKELY OUTCOME WILL BE INSTREAM RISES WHICH CAN MAKE ICE MORE<\/p>\n
HAZARDOUS FOR RECREATIONAL USERS AS OPPOSED TO LIFTING…BREAKING…<\/p>\n
AND MOBILIZING THE ICE WHICH ENHANCES RISKS FOR ICE JAM FLOODING.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
…FIRST LOOK AT MISSOURI RIVER RUNOFF…<\/p>\n
SNOWPACK ON THE PLAINS OF MONTANA AND NORTH DAKOTA THAT CONTRIBUTE<\/p>\n
TO THE MISSOURI RIVER IS NOT GOING TO SIGNIFICANTLY CONTRIBUTE TO<\/p>\n
MISSOURI RIVER FLOWS THIS YEAR. RUNOFF FROM SPRING RAINS IS STILL A<\/p>\n
WILDCARD AT THIS POINT OF THE YEAR…BUT THERE IS NO REASON TO<\/p>\n
EXPECT THE NEAR RECORD TO RECORD SPRING RAINS THAT CONTRIBUTED TO<\/p>\n
THE MISSOURI RIVER PROBLEMS IN 2011. MOUNTAIN SNOWPACK IS WELL ABOVE<\/p>\n
NORMAL IN THE UPPER YELLOWSTONE AND MISSOURI RIVER HEADWATERS. THIS<\/p>\n
ABOVE NORMAL SNOWPACK SUGGESTS A GOOD YEAR FOR RUNOFF IN THE<\/p>\n
MISSOURI RIVER OVERALL…BUT STILL WELL BELOW WHAT WOULD BE NEEDED<\/p>\n
TO CREATE SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
…LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC RIVER OUTLOOK BY FLOOD CATEGORY…<\/p>\n
THE TABLE BELOW GIVES BOTH THE CURRENT CHANCES (CS) AND THE<\/p>\n
NORMAL\/HISTORICAL CHANCES (HS) FOR EXCEEDING THE MINOR…MODERATE<\/p>\n
AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES AT THE RIVER FORECAST POINT LOCATIONS DURING<\/p>\n
THE VALID PERIOD OF THIS OUTLOOK.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
JAMES AND MISSOURI RIVER BASINS<\/p>\n
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR…MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING<\/p>\n
FROM 3\/8\/2014 TO 6\/6\/2014 Z<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
TABLE 1 : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL<\/p>\n
: CHANCES OF EXCEEDING FLOOD<\/p>\n
: CATEGORY IN PERCENT (%)<\/p>\n
CATEGORICAL :<\/p>\n
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR<\/p>\n
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS<\/p>\n
——– —— —— —— : — — — — — —<\/p>\n
LITTLE MUDDY CREEK…..<\/p>\n
WILLISTON 10.0 12.0 14.0 : 72 50 39 25 5 11<\/p>\n
LITTLE MISSOURI RIVER…..<\/p>\n
MARMARTH 18.0 23.0 30.0 : 16 5 5 5 5 5<\/p>\n
MEDORA 15.0 18.0 20.0 : 20 7 17 5 16 5<\/p>\n
WATFORD CITY 20.0 24.0 30.0 : 5 5 5 5 5 5<\/p>\n
KNIFE RIVER…..<\/p>\n
MANNING 15.0 17.0 20.0 : 17 17 5 5 5 5<\/p>\n
SPRING CREEK…..<\/p>\n
ZAP 14.0 18.0 20.0 : 25 22 9 6 6 5<\/p>\n
KNIFE RIVER…..<\/p>\n
HAZEN 21.0 24.0 25.0 : 35 28 15 11 12 7<\/p>\n
HEART RIVER…..<\/p>\n
MANDAN 17.0 23.0 28.0 : 5 6 5 5 5 5<\/p>\n
APPLE CREEK…..<\/p>\n
MENOKEN 15.0 16.0 17.0 : 58 57 44 48 7 26<\/p>\n
CANNONBALL RIVER…..<\/p>\n
REGENT 22.0 24.0 26.0 : 5 5 5 5 5 5<\/p>\n
CEDAR CREEK…..<\/p>\n
RALEIGH 12.0 14.0 16.0 : 19 5 6 5 5 5<\/p>\n
CANNONBALL RIVER…..<\/p>\n
BREIEN 10.0 20.0 23.0 : 98 48 11 5 5 5<\/p>\n
BEAVER CREEK…..<\/p>\n
LINTON 9.0 11.0 13.0 : 31 37 14 28 8 12<\/p>\n
JAMES RIVER…..<\/p>\n
GRACE CITY 12.0 14.0 15.0 : 5 9 5 6 5 5<\/p>\n
PIPESTEM CREEK…..<\/p>\n
PINGREE 11.0 13.0 15.0 : 7 5 5 5 5 5<\/p>\n
JAMES RIVER…..<\/p>\n
LAMOURE 14.0 16.0 18.0 : 11 10 5 5 5 5<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
LEGEND:<\/p>\n
CS CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (OUTLOOK FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS)<\/p>\n
HS HISTORICAL SIMULATION ( ” ” NORMAL CONDITIONS)<\/p>\n
FT FEET ABOVE GAGE ZERO DATUM<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
…LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK BY RIVER STAGE…<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
THE TABLE BELOW GIVES THE CURRENT 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT CHANCES FOR<\/p>\n
EXCEEDING RIVER STAGES AT THE RIVER FORECAST POINT LOCATIONS DURING<\/p>\n
THE VALID PERIOD OF THIS OUTLOOK.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
EXAMPLE: DURING THE VALID TIME OF THIS OUTLOOK…THERE IS A<\/p>\n
50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR THE LITTLE MUDDY CREEK AT WILLISTON<\/p>\n
TO RISE ABOVE 8.2 FEET AND ONLY A 10 PERCENT CHANCE THAT<\/p>\n
IT WILL RISE ABOVE 13.2 FEET.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
JAMES AND MISSOURI RIVER BASINS<\/p>\n
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK<\/p>\n
PROBABILITIES FOR EXCEEDING LISTED RIVER STAGES<\/p>\n
FROM 3\/8\/2014 TO 6\/6\/2014 Z<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
TABLE 2<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 05%<\/p>\n
——– —— —— —— —— —— —— ——<\/p>\n
LITTLE MUDDY CREEK…..<\/p>\n
WILLISTON 8.2 8.8 9.9 11.3 12.3 13.2 13.7<\/p>\n
LITTLE MISSOURI RIVER…..<\/p>\n
MARMARTH 5.6 5.8 7.4 11.1 14.3 19.4 20.3<\/p>\n
MEDORA 6.8 7.1 8.5 11.9 14.3 20.9 21.4<\/p>\n
WATFORD CITY 3.7 3.8 5.5 8.3 10.3 17.3 17.8<\/p>\n
KNIFE RIVER…..<\/p>\n
MANNING 7.4 7.7 9.1 11.2 14.2 15.7 16.3<\/p>\n
SPRING CREEK…..<\/p>\n
ZAP 5.0 5.7 7.5 10.5 14.3 17.8 21.2<\/p>\n
KNIFE RIVER…..<\/p>\n
HAZEN 3.9 4.7 9.0 15.6 22.2 25.3 26.1<\/p>\n
HEART RIVER…..<\/p>\n
MANDAN 2.7 2.9 4.2 7.7 11.8 14.8 16.7<\/p>\n
APPLE CREEK…..<\/p>\n
MENOKEN 9.6 9.9 12.3 15.7 16.4 16.7 17.4<\/p>\n
CANNONBALL RIVER…..<\/p>\n
REGENT 6.0 6.1 7.9 9.0 12.2 15.3 16.6<\/p>\n
CEDAR CREEK…..<\/p>\n
RALEIGH 8.2 8.4 9.1 10.1 11.5 13.1 14.1<\/p>\n
CANNONBALL RIVER…..<\/p>\n
BREIEN 11.6 12.3 13.5 14.9 16.6 20.2 20.6<\/p>\n
BEAVER CREEK…..<\/p>\n
LINTON 5.7 5.7 6.3 7.4 9.4 12.1 15.1<\/p>\n
JAMES RIVER…..<\/p>\n
GRACE CITY 5.3 5.5 6.1 6.8 8.2 10.4 11.6<\/p>\n
PIPESTEM CREEK…..<\/p>\n
PINGREE 5.9 6.0 7.0 8.1 9.8 10.5 11.3<\/p>\n
JAMES RIVER…..<\/p>\n
LAMOURE 7.8 7.9 8.1 8.7 9.7 14.4 16.1<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
…THE OUTLOOK PRODUCTION PROCESS…<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
THIS LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK IS BASED ON A SERIES OF PEAK<\/p>\n
RIVER LEVELS OR CRESTS TAKEN FROM THE FORECAST HYDROGRAPH RESULTS<\/p>\n
OF THE NWS ENSEMBLE STREAMFLOW PREDICTION MODEL (ESP). THE MODEL<\/p>\n
IS RUN FOR MULTIPLE SCENARIOS STARTING AT CURRENT RIVER…SNOW AND<\/p>\n
SOIL CONDITIONS AND USING 25 OR MORE YEARS OF PAST PRECIPITATION AND<\/p>\n
TEMPERATURE CONDITIONS IN THE HISTORICAL RECORD. THESE CRESTS CAN<\/p>\n
THEN BE RANKED FROM LOWEST TO HIGHEST…AND ASSIGNED AN<\/p>\n
EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITY. FOR EXAMPLE…FOR A SERIES OF 50 YEARS…<\/p>\n
THE LOWEST RANKED CREST HAS 49 CRESTS ABOVE IT AND SINCE 95 PERCENT<\/p>\n
OF THE CRESTS ARE ABOVE IT… IT IS ASSIGNED A 95 PERCENT<\/p>\n
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDANCE (POE).<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
THE PROBABILITIES CAN BE USED FOR RISK MANAGEMENT BY COMPARING THIS<\/p>\n
YEARS CURRENT TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS WITH<\/p>\n
THOSE OF PAST YEARS USED IN THE HYDRO OUTLOOK. THEY CAN ALSO BE<\/p>\n
USED AS AN INDICATION OF THE RANGE OF CRESTS THAT MAY BE EXPECTED<\/p>\n
DURING THE VALID PERIOD OF THE OUTLOOK.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
BY PROVIDING A RANGE OF PEAK RIVER LEVEL PROBABILITIES..THE NWS IS<\/p>\n
IS CONTRIBUTING TO THE AREAS DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES THAT HELP<\/p>\n
WITH LONG RANGE FLOOD PLANNING AND RESPONSE READINESS. THIS OUTLOOK<\/p>\n
IS A PART OF NOAA\/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE\/S AHPS (ADVANCED<\/p>\n
HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICES).<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
THIS OUTLOOK WAS PRODUCED USING PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES<\/p>\n
FOR THE YEARS 1978 THROUGH 2002.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SOURCES…<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
THE AHPS LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED<\/p>\n
NEAR THE END OF EACH MONTH. HOWEVER…SPRING FLOOD AND WATER<\/p>\n
RESOURCES OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED SEVERAL TIMES DURING THE CRITICAL<\/p>\n
SPRING MELT PERIOD…USUALLY ON THURSDAYS BEGINNING IN LATE<\/p>\n
FEBRUARY OR EARLY MARCH AND ENDING IN EARLY APRIL…DEPENDING ON<\/p>\n
THE SPRING FLOODING CONDITIONS.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
THIS OUTLOOK IS ALSO PRESENTED AS GRAPHS OF THE PROBABILITY OF STAGE<\/p>\n
EXCEEDANCE FOR THE FULL PERIOD AND FOR WEEKLY INTERVALS DURING THE<\/p>\n
PERIOD. THESE GRAPHS…TOGETHER WITH EXPLANATIONS THAT HELP IN<\/p>\n
INTERPRETING THEM ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE NWS BISMARCK AHPS WEB<\/p>\n
PAGE ON THE INTERNET AT:<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
WWW.WEATHER.GOV\/BISMARCK OR WEATHER.GOV\/BIS<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
THEN CLICK ON THE “RIVERS AND LAKES AHPS”ON THE TAB ABOVE THE MAP<\/p>\n
…OR ON THE LINK IN THE BLUE-LEFT-HAND BANNER.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
CURRENT RIVER CONDITIONS FOR ALL FORECAST POINTS WITHIN THE SOURIS<\/p>\n
RIVER BASIN ARE AVAILABLE ON OUR WEB SITE…AS WELL AS THE FORECASTS<\/p>\n
WHEN THE RIVER AT THE FORECAST POINT IS IN OR NEAR FLOOD.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS…CONTACT THE NWS AT 701-250-4495.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED MONTHLY THROUGHOUT<\/p>\n
THE REST OF THE YEAR DURING THE LATER PART OF THE MONTH OR AS<\/p>\n
CONDITIONS WARRANT.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK \u00a0NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND …FLOOD OUTLOOK OVERVIEW HIGHLIGHTS… OVERALL THE FLOOD RISK ACROSS THE MISSOURI AND JAMES RIVER BASINS REMAINS NEAR NORMAL TO SOMEWHAT ELEVATED. DESPITE RECENT YEARS WHERE THE GREATEST CONTRIBUTOR TO FLOOD RISK WAS READILY APPARENT IN THE SNOWPACK ON THE GROUND…THIS YEAR THE […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":11547,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[14,16],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-40561","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-jamestown","category-weathernews"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/csinewsnow.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40561","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/csinewsnow.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/csinewsnow.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/csinewsnow.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/csinewsnow.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=40561"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/csinewsnow.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40561\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":40564,"href":"https:\/\/csinewsnow.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40561\/revisions\/40564"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/csinewsnow.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/11547"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/csinewsnow.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=40561"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/csinewsnow.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=40561"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/csinewsnow.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=40561"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}