Devils LakeJUL 25, 2013

DEVILS LAKE OUTLOOK FOR FLOOD POTENTIAL…
 
                           DEVILS AND STUMP LAKES
                     LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK

FROM JULY 29, 2013 TO OCTOBER 27, 2013 
        
   THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS PROVIDING MONTHLY UPDATES OF
     THE LONG-RANGE OUTLOOK FOR BOTH HIGH AND LOW WATER IN DEVILS
       AND STUMP LAKES. DEPENDING ON THE TIME OF YEAR…THE HIGH WATER
         OUTLOOK OR THE LOW WATER OUTLOOK MAY BE OMITTED DUE TO THE
           APPLICABILITY OF THE PROJECTION TYPE TO THE HYDROLOGIC
             SITUATION.
      
       PLEASE NOTE THAT THE VALID DATES FOR THE HIGH WATER VALES…AND
       THOSE OF THE LOW WATER VALUES WILL BE FOR DIFFERENT TIME PERIODS.
       THIS IS TO COVER BEST REPRESENT THOSE TIMES OF THE YEAR WHEN THE
       LAKE TYPICALLY RISES AND WHEN IT TYPICALLY FALLS…DEPENDING ON
       THE SEASON
        
       THIS MESSAGE AND ITS ASSOCIATED GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
      
          WWW.WEATHER.GOV/FGF UNDER THE RIVERS AND LAKES TAB

DRIER THAN NORMAL RAINFALL IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND OUTLET
 PUMPING LED TO LESS THAN EXPECTED LAKE RISES LAST MONTH.
 PRECIPITATION DEFICITS RANGED FROM THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH IN
 THE NORTHERN DEVILS LAKE BASIN TO AROUND 3 INCHES IN THE SOUTH.
 
 LATE SUMMER IS THE TIME OF THE YEAR WHEN THE LAKE LEVELS ACROSS THE
 DEVILS LAKE BASIN TYPICALLY START TO DROP DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF
 SEASONAL EVAPORATION OFF THE LAKE SURFACE EXCEEDING THE EFFECTS OF
 RAINFALL AND RUNOFF. ADDITIONALLY…AS THE WATER LEVELS IN THE
 SHEYENNE RIVER HAVE DROPPED…THE STATE OUTLETS HAVE CONTINUED
 THEIR PUMPING OPERATIONS. BOTH OF THESE EFFECTS ARE REFLECTED IN
 THESE LATEST PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS FOR DEVILS LAKE AND STUMP LAKE.
 
 AT THE TIME THESE OUTLOOKS WERE PREPARED…DEVILS LAKE WAS VERY
 NEAR AN ELEVATION OF 1453.6 FEET…WITH A 10% EXPECTATION THAT THE
 LAKE COULD RISE A TENTH OF A FOOT BEFORE THE END OF OCTOBER. ON
 THE OTHER HAND…THERE IS A 10% EXPECTATION THAT THE LAKE COULD
 DROP TO 1451.8 FEET AFTER SEPTEMBER 1ST AND BEFORE THE END OF
 NOVEMBER. BASED ON THE CLIMATE OUTLOOK THROUGH THE LATE SUMMER AND
 EARLY FALL…THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT DEVILS LAKE WILL
 CONTINUE A VERY SLOW FALL THE NEXT FEW MONTHS.