0855 AM CDT FRI SEP 27 2013
 
 …DEVILS LAKE OUTLOOK FOR FLOOD POTENTIAL…
 
                           DEVILS AND STUMP LAKES
                     LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
       
              FROM SEPTEMBER 30, 2013 TO DECEMBER 29, 2013           
 
 
   THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS PROVIDING MONTHLY UPDATES OF
    THE LONG-RANGE OUTLOOK FOR BOTH HIGH AND LOW WATER IN DEVILS
     AND STUMP LAKES. THESE AND THEIR ASSOCIATED WEB GRAPHICS
      ARE VALID FOR THE PERIOD…
 
             FROM SEPTEMBER 30, 2013 TO DECEMBER 29, 2013.
 
   STARTING WITH THIS OUTLOOK, IT WILL NOW USE 63 YEARS (1949-2011)
     OF PAST WEATHER…TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION…FOR THE
     ENSEMBLE PREDICTIVE HYDROGRAPHS USED IN CALCULATING THE
     PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING A RIVER LEVEL FOR THE VALID PERIOD
     OF THE OUTLOOK. BEGINNING IN JANUARY OF 2014…THE OUTLOOK
     WILL INCLUDE THE WEATHER FOR 2012 INTO THE ENSEMBLE HYDROGRAPHS.
 
 . CHANCES OF DEVILS AND STUMP LAKES RISING ABOVE GIVEN LAKE LEVELS…
 
   THE PROBABILTY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED LAKE LEVEL IS THAT
   PERCENTAGE OF ALL MODEL CASES RUN WERE ABOVE THAT SPECIFIED
   FOR THE WHOLE VALID PERIOD OF THE OUTLOOK.
 
     FOR EXAMPLE THE THERE IS A 50 PER CENT CHANCE THAT DEVILS LAKE
       WILL RISE ABOVE 1452.5 FEET DURING THE VALID PERIOD AND ONLY A
       5 PER CENT CHANCE THAT IT WILL RISE ABOVE 1452.5 FEET.
    
              FROM SEPTEMBER 30, 2013 TO DECEMBER 29, 2013           
 
 LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%
 ——–            —— —— —— —— —— —— ——
 DEVILS LAKE…..
   CREEL BAY         1452.5 1452.5 1452.5 1452.5 1452.5 1452.5 1452.5
 STUMP LAKE…..
   EAST STUMP LAKE   1452.5 1452.5 1452.5 1452.5 1452.5 1452.5 1452.5
 
 
 . CURRENT AND PREVIOUS RECORD HIGH LAKE LEVELS…
 
  *  THE CURRENT HEIGHT OF DEVILS LAKE AT CREEL BAY IS 1452.5 FEET
  *  THE CURRENT HEIGHT OF  STUMP LAKE NEAR LAKOTA  IS 1452.5 FEET
 
  *  THE MOST RECENT USGS PROVISIONAL RECORD DAILY AVERAGE HEIGHT
     FOR DEVILS LAKE AT THE CREEL BAY GAGE:
                 …1454.30 FEET ON   JUNE 27 OF 2011
  *  PREVIOUS RECORDS:
                 …1452.05 FEET ON   JUNE 27 OF 2010
                 …1450.93 FEET ON   JUNE 27 OF 2009
                 …1449.20 FEET ON    MAY  9 OF 2006
                 …1449.18 FEET ON   JUNE 17 OF 2004
                 …1449.17 FEET ON AUGUST  2 OF 2005
 
  * FOR MORE HIGH WATER MARKS…SEE THE USGS FLOOD TRACKING CHARTS AT:
 
          HTTP://ND.WATER.USGS.GOV/FLOODTRACKING
 
 
 . CHANCES OF DEVILS AND STUMP LAKES FALLING BELOW GIVEN LAKE LEVELS…
 
   THE PROBABILITY OF NOT EXCEEDING THE LISTED LAKE LEVEL IS THAT
   PERCENTAGE OF ALL MODEL CASES RUN WERE BELOW THAT SPECIFIED
   FOR THE WHOLE VALID PERIOD OF THE OUTLOOK.
  
     FOR EXAMPLE THE THERE IS A 50 PER CENT CHANCE THAT DEVILS LAKE
       WILL FALL BELOW 1451.7 FEET DURING THE VALID PERIOD AND ONLY A
       5 PER CENT CHANCE THAT IT WILL FALL BELOW 1451.6 FEET.
 
            PROBABILITIES FOR NON-EXCEEDING LISTED LAKE LEVELS
                      FROM 9/30/2013 TO 12/29/2013                   
 
 LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%
 ——–            —— —— —— —— —— —— ——
 DEVILS LAKE…..
   CREEL BAY         1452.1 1451.9 1451.8 1451.7 1451.7 1451.6 1451.6
 STUMP LAKE…..
   EAST STUMP LAKE   1452.1 1451.9 1451.8 1451.7 1451.7 1451.6 1451.6
 
 
 . ADDITIONAL INFORMATION…
 
 WIND AND WAVE FORECASTS FOR DEVILS AND STUMP LAKES ARE AVAILABLE FOR
 A SEVEN DAY PERIOD WHEN THE LAKES ARE SUFFICIENTLY ICE-FREE AT:
 
            WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/FGF/HYDRO/LAKE-FCST.PHP
 
 ADDITIONALLY…7 DAY LAKE EVAPORATION FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE
 DURING THE GROWING SEASON AT:
 
            WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/FGF/CLIMATE/FARM-INFO.PHP
 
 THE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK IS BASED ON HIGH AND LOW LAKE
 LEVELS THAT WERE CALCULATED FOR THE SPECIFIED PERIOD USING MULTIPLE
 SCENARIOS FROM 60 YEARS (1949-2009) OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
 DATA AND CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE LAKE, SNOWCOVER  (IN WINTER)…
 AND SOIL MOISTURE…AS WELL AS THE SEASONAL CLIMATE OUTLOOK FOR
 TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION PROVIDED BY THE NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION
 CENTER, DETAILS OF THE CLIMATE OUTLOOK USED ARE AVAILABLE
 FROM THE WEB AT:
 
                      HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
 
 BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF LAKE LEVEL PROBABILITIES, THE
 AMOUNT OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN
 BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE PART OF NOAAS
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICES ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICES
 (AHPS).
 
 THIS OUTLOOK IS ALSO PRESENTED AS PROBABILITY GRAPHS OF LAKE HEIGHT
 FOR THE FULL PERIOD AS WELL AS WEEKLY PROBABILITIES. THE OUTLOOK
 GRAPHICS AND EXPLANATIONS THAT HELP IN INTERPRETING THESE OUTLOOKS
 ARE AVAILABLE FROM…
 
   THE NWS GRAND FORKS AHPS PAGE ON THE INTERNET AT:
 
                          WEATHER.GOV/GRANDFORKS
 
                    CLICK ON RIVERS AND LAKES AHPS LINK 
 
 OUTLOOK GRAPHICS OF THE PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING VARIOUS LAKE LEVELS
 FOR DEVILS AND STUMP LAKES ARE ALSO ON OUR WEB SITE. THEY SHOULD BE
 AVAILABLE BY 9 AM FRIDAY. MONTHLY PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE USUALLY
 ISSUED ON THE FRIDAY OF THE WEEK FOLLOWING THE FIRST THURSDAY AFTER
 THE 15TH OF THE MONTH…USUALLY THE THIRD OR FOURTH WEEK OF THE MONTH.
 
 IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS…CONTACT THE NWS AT 701-772-0720