Bismarck  (CSi) Mar 2, 2017  The National Weather Service has updated the probabilistic Spring Flood and Water Resources outlook.

The report covers is for the Missouri and James River basins of North Dakota and covers the period of early March through early June.

…Flood Outlook Highlights…

Unseasonably warm temperatures during the last half of February

caused much of the deep snow cover that had been present across

the Missouri and James River basins of North Dakota to melt.

Significant frost was unable to form underneath the previous snow

cover during the winter because the first heavy snows arrived

after an extended, warm fall. As a result, a much larger than

normal amount of meltwater was able to infiltrate unfrozen ground

during the last few weeks instead of just running off and entering

the river systems.

 

As a result of the significantly depleted snowpack, the overall

risk of flooding in the Missouri and James River basins of North

Dakota has decreased substantially since the last outlook.

However, pockets of remaining deep snow cover are still present

and are responsible for locally greater probabilities of flooding

on the Little Muddy River near Williston, Apple Creek near

Menoken, along the James River above Jamestown Dam, and to a

lesser extent in the lower reaches of the Knife River basin.

 

It`s important to note that while the rapid decrease in snowpack

has decreased the flood risk, it remains near normal for this time

of year because the moisture from the melting snow has resulted

in wet soil conditions. The potential for future spring rain or wet snow events on top of the wet soils,could lead to flooding, even in areas where

snow is essentially gone at this point.

 

…Current Conditions…

Rivers, lakes, and reservoirs are near to slightly above normal

for this time of the year, but their current levels provide no

significant concerns. Snow cover is not uniform across the area.

There`s virtually no snow cover left in parts of southwestern

North Dakota, but pockets of deep snow remain, particularly around

Hazen, in the Apple Creek basin near Menoken, and in the upper

reaches of the James River above Jamestown Dam. Soil moisture

remains above normal, in part due to the recent snowmelt.

 

…Weather Outlook…

The near term, 6 to 10 day outlook favors above normal temperatures

and near normal precipitation across most of the Missouri and James

River basins of North Dakota. The 8 to 14 day outlook favors near

normal temperatures and slightly favors above normal precipitation.

Looking out further, the outlook for the latter part of March and

the full three-month outlook valid from March through May favors

near normal temperatures and slightly favors above normal

precipitation.