Jamestown  (CSi)  Mar 22, 2017   The National Weather service has updated the spring 2017 flood and weather outlook, for the James River Valley.

…Flood Outlook Highlights…

Almost all of the wintertime snowpack that was present across the Missouri and James River basins of North Dakota has melted during the last several weeks. A significant component of the meltwater was able to soak into the soil rather than running off into the river systems. That occurred because soils underneath the deep wintertime snow cover were largely unfrozen.


Since the last outlook, the probability of flooding has decreased significantly on the James River above Jamestown Dam, where only a few pockets of deeper snowpack remain. The flooding risk has also decreased on Apple Creek as more snow has been depleted from that basin since the last outlook, as well.


Importantly, wet soil conditions have developed across much of the Missouri and James River basins in North Dakota following snowmelt in the last few weeks. This means that if heavy spring rains were to occur, runoff and flooding risk would be enhanced. A near normal risk of flooding continues through the spring across much of the Missouri and James River basins in North Dakota.


Finally, ice remains in many creeks and rivers. Thus, there is a risk of ice-related high water until it all goes out. None of the numbers below reflect the risk of ice-related high water. Ice jams and associated high water are not calculable in the models used which are based on flow in the river.


…Current Conditions...

Rivers, lakes, and reservoirs are near to slightly above normal for this time of the year, but their current levels provide no significant concerns. Many rivers and creeks continue to have ice in their channels. Most of the snowpack across the Missouri and James River basins in North Dakota is gone, though pockets of slightly greater snow cover remain in the James River basin above Jamestown Dam and in the Apple Creek basin near Menoken. Soil moisture remains above normal following recent snowmelt.


…Weather Outlook…

The near term 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks depict above normal temperatures and a near normal amount of moisture. Looking out at the longer term one-month and three-month outlooks, there is an equal chance for below normal, near normal, or above normal temperatures, and a slightly enhanced chance for above normal precipitation.