THU FEB 21 2013
 
 …DEVILS LAKE OUTLOOK FOR FLOOD POTENTIAL…
 
                           DEVILS AND STUMP LAKES
                     LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
 
             FROM FEBRUARY 18, 2013  TO SEPTEMBER 30, 2013
 
 
 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS PROVIDING MONTHLY UPDATES OF THE
 LONG-RANGE OUTLOOK FOR BOTH HIGH AND LOW WATER IN DEVILS AND STUMP
 LAKES. THESE…AND THEIR ASSOCIATED WEB GRAPHICS…ARE VALID FOR
 THE PERIOD FROM FEBRUARY 18, 2013  TO SEPTEMBER 30, 2013.
 
 
            CHANCES OF DEVILS AND STUMP LAKES RISING ABOVE
                         THE GIVEN LAKE LEVELS
 
             PROBABILITIES FOR EXCEEDING LISTED LAKE LEVELS
                      FROM 2/18/2013 TO 9/30/2013
 
 LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%
 ——–            —— —— —— —— —— —— ——
 DEVILS LAKE…..
   CREEL BAY         1452.4 1452.6 1452.9 1453.2 1453.7 1454.4 1454.6
 STUMP LAKE…..
   EAST STUMP LAKE   1452.4 1452.6 1452.9 1453.2 1453.7 1454.4 1454.6
 DEVILS LAKE…..
 STUMP LAKE…..
 
   THE CURRENT HEIGHT OF DEVILS LAKE AT CREEL BAY IS NOT AVAILABLE.
   THE CURRENT HEIGHT OF  STUMP LAKE NEAR LAKOTA  IS 1451.3 FEET
 
 THE MOST RECENT USGS PROVISIONAL RECORD DAILY AVERAGE HEIGHT FOR
 DEVILS LAKE AT THE CREEL BAY GAGE:
                 …1454.30 FEET ON   JUNE 27 OF 2011
 PREVIOUS RECORDS:
                 …1452.05 FEET ON   JUNE 27 OF 2010
                 …1450.93 FEET ON   JUNE 27 OF 2009
                 …1449.20 FEET ON    MAY  9 OF 2006
                 …1449.18 FEET ON   JUNE 17 OF 2004
                 …1449.17 FEET ON AUGUST  2 OF 2005
 
 FOR MORE HIGH WATER MARKS…SEE THE USGS FLOOD TRACKING CHARTS AT:
 
          HTTP://ND.WATER.USGS.GOV/FLOODTRACKING
 
 
             CHANCES OF DEVILS AND STUMP LAKES FALLING BELOW
                         GIVEN LAKE LEVELS
 
            PROBABILITIES FOR NON-EXCEEDING LISTED LAKE LEVELS
                      FROM 2/18/2013 TO 9/30/2013
 
 LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%
 ——–            —— —— —— —— —— —— ——
   CREEL BAY         1451.4 1451.4 1451.4 1451.4 1451.1 1450.8 1450.7
   EAST STUMP LAKE   1451.4 1451.4 1451.4 1451.4 1451.1 1450.8 1450.7
 
 WIND AND WAVE FORECASTS FOR DEVILS AND STUMP LAKES ARE AVAILABLE FOR
 A SEVEN DAY PERIOD WHEN THE LAKES ARE SUFFICIENTLY ICE-FREE AT:
 
            WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/FGF/HYDRO/LAKE-FCST.PHP
 
 ADDITIONALLY…7 DAY LAKE EVAPORATION FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE
 DURING THE GROWING SEASON AT:
 
            WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/FGF/CLIMATE/FARM-INFO.PHP
 
 THE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK IS BASED ON HIGH AND LOW LAKE
 LEVELS THAT WERE CALCULATED FOR THE SPECIFIED PERIOD USING MULTIPLE
 SCENARIOS FROM 60 YEARS (1949-2009) OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
 DATA AND CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE LAKE, SNOWCOVER  (IN WINTER)…
 AND SOIL MOISTURE…AS WELL AS THE SEASONAL CLIMATE OUTLOOK FOR
 TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION PROVIDED BY THE NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION
 CENTER, DETAILS OF THE CLIMATE OUTLOOK USED ARE AVAILABLE
 FROM THE WEB AT:
 
                      HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
 
 BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF LAKE LEVEL PROBABILITIES, THE
 AMOUNT OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN
 BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE PART OF NOAAS
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICES ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICES
 (AHPS).
 
 THIS OUTLOOK IS ALSO PRESENTED AS PROBABILITY GRAPHS OF LAKE HEIGHT
 FOR THE FULL PERIOD AS WELL AS WEEKLY PROBABILITIES. THE OUTLOOK
 GRAPHICS AND EXPLANATIONS THAT HELP IN INTERPRETING THESE OUTLOOKS
 ARE AVAILABLE FROM…
 
   THE NWS GRAND FORKS AHPS PAGE ON THE INTERNET AT:
 
                          WEATHER.GOV/GRANDFORKS
 
                    CLICK ON RIVERS AND LAKES AHPS LINK
 
 OUTLOOK GRAPHICS OF THE PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING VARIOUS LAKE
 LEVELS
 FOR DEVILS AND STUMP LAKES ARE ALSO ON OUR WEB SITE. THEY SHOULD BE
 AVAILABLE BY 9 AM FRIDAY. MONTHLY PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE USUALLY
 ISSUED ON THE FRIDAY OF THE WEEK FOLLOWING THE FIRST THURSDAY AFTER
 THE 15TH OF THE MONTH…USUALLY THE THIRD OR FOURTH WEEK OF THE
 MONTH.