Bismarck, ND (KCSi-T.V. News Mar 8, 2013) — The National Weather Service rports, that despite recent snow and its moisture content, the flood outlook as of today, in the James River basin remains low.

Current forecasts show less than a 5 percent chance of flooding of any type at Grace City in the northern basin. and at LaMoure in the southern basin.

That’s is a decrease from a 10 percent flooding probability at Grace City two weeks ago.

Pipestem Creek at Pingree is now at a 7 percent chance of flooding compared to an 11 percent chance of flooding forecast two weeks ago.

Pipestem Dam Manager,Bob Martin, says the snow depth had increased from 10.8 inches to 15.2 inches over the past two weeks.

Moisture content in the snow increased from 1.79 inches to 2.13 inches during that time..

Martin says the moisture content at its present amount, is really not at levels of concern.

The National Weather Service says there is still a concern with overland flooding especially south of Jamestown, and could be affected by the amount of spring rain on the snow pack.

The current long range forecasts have equal chances of above- or below-normal precipitation for the three-month period.

On Thursday, Pipestem Dam was releasing 2 cubic feet per second matching inflows from springs and keeping the reservoir level steady.

No water is presently being released from Jamestown Dam.

 

ST. PAUL, Minn. (Mar 7, 2013) –  The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, St. Paul District, will begin the drawdown of four of its western area reservoirs to the maximum drawdown elevations in preparation of spring flooding forecasted by the National Weather Service.

The Corps’ drawdown plans include:

Baldhill Dam, near Valley City, N.D., is targeted to reach its maximum drawdown elevation of 1,257 feet by the end of March. The Corps initiated part of the drawdown in October 2012. The reservoir is currently just above elevation 1,262 feet.

Homme Dam, located near Park River, N.D., will be lowered to its maximum elevation of 1,064 feet by the end of March. The Corps initiated part of the drawdown at the dam in November 2012. The Corps will begin the final portion of the drawdown at the reservoir March 8. The pool is currently at elevation 1,076 feet.

Lake Traverse, near Wheaton, Minn., is targeted to reach its maximum drawdown elevation of 974 feet by the end of the month. The reservoir is currently one foot below the conservation level with two feet remaining.

Orwell Reservoir, near Fergus Falls, Minn., is targeted to reach its maximum drawdown elevation of 1,050 feet by the end of March. The reservoir is currently just above elevation 1,063 feet.

 

  FARGO, N.D. (AP) – The mayor of North Dakota’s largest city says he has “no serious concerns” with the recent National Weather Service report that calls for major spring flooding along the Red River.
 
     The weather service in a report released Thursday gives the river in Fargo a 50 percent chance of cresting just under 34 feet, or about 16 feet above flood stage.
 
     Crest predictions in the new outlook are up slightly from last month.
 
     Fargo Mayor Dennis Walaker says city officials will discuss the report Monday in their second flood meeting of the season. He says they will base their planning on the 50 percent prediction.
 
     If the 34 feet number holds, a temporary clay dike would likely be built in front of city hall, but few other structures would be threatened.

 

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
 0942 AM CST THU MAR 07 2013
 
 
 …SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK…
 
 THIS IS THE SECOND ISSUANCE OF THE ANNUAL SPRING FLOOD AND WATER  RESOURCES OUTLOOK FOR THE MISSOURI AND JAMES RIVER BASINS OF WESTERN  AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA…COVERING THE TIME PERIOD OF 9 MARCH TO 7 – JUNE 2013.

THE SIGNIFICANCE OF THIS ISSUANCE IS IN THE TIMING
 WHICH ENCOMPASSES THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE SPRING MELT SEASON ACROSS  THE NATION WHILE HAVING ENOUGH OF THE SNOW ACCUMULATION SEASON  BEHIND US TO GIVE THE MODELS A GOOD BASIS FOR DETERMINING THE  LIKELIHOOD OF FLOODING RELATED TO THE SPRING THAW.
 
 THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE HAS THREE SECTIONS…THE FIRST PROVIDES
 HIGHLIGHTS OF THIS PRODUCT AND CONDITIONS AFFECTING LOCAL HYDROLOGY.
 THE SECOND GIVES THE CURRENT AND NORMAL/HISTORICAL CHANCES OF RIVER  LOCATIONS REACHING THEIR MINOR…MODERATE…AND MAJOR FLOOD  CATEGORY. THE FINAL SECTION GIVES THE CURRENT CHANCES OF RIVER  LOCATIONS RISING ABOVE LISTED RIVER STAGES.
 
 …FLOOD OUTLOOK OVERVIEW HIGHLIGHTS…
 THE MISSOURI AND JAMES RIVER BASINS OF NORTH DAKOTA REMAIN BELOW THE  HISTORICAL (NORMAL) RISKS FOR FLOODING THIS COMING SPRING. WHILE  BELOW NORMAL…APPLE CREEK NEAR MENOKEN AND BEAVER CREEK NEAR LINTON  STILL HAVE FAIRLY HIGH RISK OF REACHING MINOR FLOODING DUE TO THEIR  SUSCEPTIBILITY TO HEAVY SPRING RAINS. THE CANNONBALL RIVER NEAR  BREIEN ALSO RETAINS A 20 PERCENT RISK OF MINOR FLOODING DUE TO  SPRING RAINS.
 
 IMPORTANTLY…THE BELOW LISTED PROBABILITIES FOR FLOODING DO NOT  INCORPORATE RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH ICE JAMS…NOR DO THEY INCLUDE   RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH LOCALIZED OVERLAND FLOODING. ICE JAMS DO NOT  LEND THEMSELVES TO MATHEMATICAL MODELS. RIVER MEANDERS AND BRIDGES  THAT RESTRICT THE EASY PASSAGE OF ICE…OR CHANGE FLOW  DIRECTION…ARE THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS FOR AN ICE JAM. DESPITE  HAVING MODEST PROBABILITIES FOR RIVER FLOODING…

SOME AREAS SUCH AS  THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER BASIN IN NORTH DAKOTA HAVE ENOUGH WATER  EQUIVALENT ON THE GROUND TO CREATE OVERLAND FLOODING. THE POTENTIAL
 IN THOSE AREAS FOR OVERLAND FLOODING CAN EASILY BE ENHANCED BY A  HEAVY RAIN ON TOP OF THE SPRING MELT.
 
 …CURRENT CONDITIONS…
 RESERVOIRS WITH FLOOD CONTROL AS ONE OF THEIR PURPOSES ARE ALL AT OR  BELOW THEIR NORMAL DRAW DOWN LEVELS. MOST RIVERS AND STREAMS HAVE AT  LEAST ENOUGH WATER EQUIVALENT SITTING ON THE GROUND TO ENSURE  ADEQUATE STREAMFLOW THIS SPRING. THE SNOWPACK IN GENERAL IS BELOW  NORMAL SOUTH AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER AND TRANSITIONS TO A  MORE NORMAL SNOWPACK FARTHER NORTH OF LAKE SAKAKAWEA AND A SLIGHTLY
 ABOVE NORMAL WATER CONTENT SOUTH OF JAMESTOWN.

 MOUNTAIN SNOWPACK FOR
 THE MISSOURI RIVER ITSELF IS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO NEAR NORMAL  FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH ROUGHLY 25 PERCENT OF THE ITS SNOW  ACCUMULATION SEASON REMAINING.
 
 …WEATHER OUTLOOK…
 IN THE SHORTER 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS…THE FAVORED
 OUTCOME IS FOR ABOVE NORMAL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND BELOW NORMAL  TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. 

GOING OUT TO THE ONE MONTH AND THREE  MONTH OUTLOOKS…A BELOW NORMAL EXPECTATION FOR TEMPERATURES
 TRANSITIONS INTO AN EQUAL CHANCE FOR BELOW NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL  OUTCOME.

 PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS FOR THE ONE MONTH AND THREE MONTH  OUTLOOKS ARE CONSISTENT WITH NO STRONG INDICATOR IN PLACE WHICH  RESULTS IN EQUAL CHANCES FOR BELOW NORMAL…NORMAL…OR ABOVE NORMAL  OUTCOMES.
 
 IMPORTANTLY…THERE ARE STILL NO CLIMATE INDICATORS THAT WOULD  SUGGEST A REPEAT OF THE VERY WET SPRING OF 2011.
 
 …SUMMARY OF HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS…
 THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS HAVE SEEN NOT ONLY A SIGNIFICANT WINTER  STORM PASSING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA…BUT SOME WARMER DAYS MIXED IN  WHICH HAS RESULTED IN SOME RUNOFF. MOST OF THE RUNOFF HAS BEEN FROM  THE NEAR SHORE AREA AND HAS ONLY JUST STARTED TO WEAKEN THE RIVER  ICE. ALL CONDITIONS SUGGEST THAT WHILE ENOUGH WATER WILL BE  AVAILABLE FOR ADEQUATE STREAMFLOW THROUGH SPRING…SPRING RAINS WILL
 LIKELY BE THE DRIVING FORCE BEHIND ANY FLOODING.
 
 
 …LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC RIVER OUTLOOK BY FLOOD CATEGORY…
 
 THE TABLE BELOW GIVES BOTH THE CURRENT CHANCES (CS) AND THE
 NORMAL/HISTORICAL CHANCES (HS) FOR EXCEEDING THE MINOR…MODERATE
 AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES AT THE RIVER FORECAST POINT LOCATIONS DURING
 THE VALID PERIOD OF THIS OUTLOOK.
 
 
 
                     JAMES AND MISSOURI RIVER BASINS
                     LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
 
         PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR…MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING
                      FROM  3/9/2013 TO 6/7/2013 Z
 
 TABLE 1                                  : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL
                                          : CHANCES OF EXCEEDING FLOOD
                                          : CATEGORY IN PERCENT (%)
                          CATEGORICAL     :
                       FLOOD STAGES (FT)  :  MINOR   MODERATE  MAJOR
 LOCATION            MINOR    MOD   MAJOR :  CS HS    CS HS    CS HS
 ——–            —— —— —— : — —  — —  — —
 LITTLE MUDDY CREEK…..
   WILLISTON           10.0   12.0   14.0 :  22  63   5  28   5  10
 LITTLE MISSOURI RIVER…..
   MARMARTH            18.0   23.0   30.0 :  5   5   5  5   5  5
   MEDORA              15.0   18.0   20.0 :  5   7   5   6   5   5
   WATFORD CITY        20.0   24.0   30.0 :  5  5   5  5   5  5
 KNIFE RIVER…..
   MANNING             15.0   17.0   20.0 :  5  18   5  5   5  5
 SPRING CREEK…..
   ZAP                 14.0   18.0   20.0 :   5  22   5   7   5  5
 KNIFE RIVER…..
   HAZEN               21.0   24.0   25.0 :   5  25   5  11   5   8
 HEART RIVER…..
   MANDAN              17.0   23.0   28.0 :  5   6   5  5   5  5
 APPLE CREEK…..
   MENOKEN             15.0   16.0   17.0 :  32  55   18  47    5  25
 CANNONBALL RIVER…..
   REGENT              22.0   24.0   26.0 :  5  5   5  5   5  5
 CEDAR CREEK…..
   RALEIGH             12.0   14.0   16.0 :  5  5   5  5   5  5
 CANNONBALL RIVER…..
   BREIEN              10.0   20.0   23.0 :  20  38   5  5   5  5
 BEAVER CREEK…..
   LINTON               9.0   11.0   13.0 :  34  38   27  29   14  24
 JAMES RIVER…..
   GRACE CITY          12.0   14.0   15.0 :  5  10   5   6   5   5
 PIPESTEM CREEK…..
   PINGREE              9.0   11.0   13.0 :   7  12   5   6   5  5
 JAMES RIVER…..
   LAMOURE             14.0   16.0   18.0 :  5   9   5   5   5  5
 
 LEGEND:
     CS    CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (OUTLOOK FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS)
     HS    HISTORICAL SIMULATION  ( ”       ”  NORMAL  CONDITIONS)
     FT    FEET ABOVE GAGE ZERO DATUM
 
 
 …LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK BY RIVER STAGE…
 
 
 THE TABLE BELOW GIVES THE CURRENT 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT CHANCES FOR
 EXCEEDING RIVER STAGES AT THE RIVER FORECAST POINT LOCATIONS DURING
 THE VALID PERIOD OF THIS OUTLOOK.
 
 EXAMPLE: DURING THE VALID TIME OF THIS OUTLOOK…THERE IS A         
 50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR THE LITTLE MUDDY CREEK AT WILLISTON TO RISE
 ABOVE 8.3 FEET AND ONLY A 10 PERCENT CHANCE THAT IT WILL RISE ABOVE
 10.8 FEET.
 
 
                     JAMES AND MISSOURI RIVER BASINS
                     LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
            PROBABILITIES FOR EXCEEDING LISTED RIVER STAGES
                       FROM  3/9/2013 TO 6/7/2013
 TABLE 2
 
 LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%
 ——–            —— —— —— —— —— —— ——
 LITTLE MUDDY CREEK…..
   WILLISTON            6.1    6.5    7.3    8.3    9.8   10.8   10.8
 LITTLE MISSOURI RIVER…..
   MARMARTH             1.8    1.8    1.9    3.0    3.9    6.4    9.9
   MEDORA               1.9    1.9    2.1    3.3    4.5    7.3   10.4
   WATFORD CITY        -0.9   -0.5    0.3    1.1    2.5    4.6    6.4
 KNIFE RIVER…..
   MANNING              6.2    6.2    6.2    7.3    8.9   10.1   10.7
 SPRING CREEK…..
   ZAP                  5.1    5.2    5.6    6.4    9.7   11.1   14.5
 KNIFE RIVER…..
   HAZEN                1.3    2.0    3.6    6.6   10.7   16.0   21.0
 HEART RIVER…..
   MANDAN               1.0    1.4    2.0    3.0    5.6    7.6    9.7
 APPLE CREEK…..
   MENOKEN              5.6    5.8    6.7   11.5   15.7   16.3   17.0
 CANNONBALL RIVER…..
   REGENT               3.2    3.3    4.6    6.7    8.3    9.3   10.4
 CEDAR CREEK…..
   RALEIGH              2.3    2.3    2.8    4.3    5.4    6.4    6.8
 CANNONBALL RIVER…..
   BREIEN               5.1    5.1    5.6    7.3    9.6   11.6   13.2
 BEAVER CREEK…..
   LINTON               6.6    6.8    6.9    8.0   12.0   13.6   14.6
 JAMES RIVER…..
   GRACE CITY           4.4    4.5    4.8    5.1    5.6    6.7    8.1
 PIPESTEM CREEK…..
   PINGREE              5.1    5.1    5.2    5.6    6.7    7.8   10.1
 JAMES RIVER…..
   LAMOURE              7.1    7.1    7.3    7.6    8.2    9.7   10.4
 
 
 …THE OUTLOOK PRODUCTION PROCESS…
 
 THIS LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK IS BASED ON A SERIES OF PEAK
 RIVER LEVELS OR CRESTS TAKEN FROM THE FORECAST HYDROGRAPH RESULTS
 OF THE NWS ENSEMBLE STREAMFLOW PREDICTION MODEL (ESP). THE MODEL
 IS RUN FOR MULTIPLE SCENARIOS STARTING AT CURRENT RIVER…SNOW AND
 SOIL CONDITIONS AND USING 25 OR MORE YEARS OF PAST PRECIPITATION AND
 TEMPERATURE CONDITIONS IN THE HISTORICAL RECORD. THESE CRESTS CAN
 THEN BE RANKED FROM LOWEST TO HIGHEST…AND ASSIGNED AN
 EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITY. FOR EXAMPLE…FOR A SERIES OF 50 YEARS…
 THE LOWEST RANKED CREST HAS 49 CRESTS ABOVE IT AND SINCE 95 PERCENT
 OF THE CRESTS ARE ABOVE IT… IT IS ASSIGNED A 95 PERCENT
 PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDANCE (POE).
 
 THE PROBABILITIES CAN BE USED FOR RISK MANAGEMENT BY COMPARING THIS
 YEARS CURRENT TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS WITH
 THOSE OF PAST YEARS USED IN THE HYDRO OUTLOOK. THEY CAN ALSO BE
 USED AS AN INDICATION OF THE RANGE OF CRESTS THAT MAY BE EXPECTED
 DURING THE VALID PERIOD OF THE OUTLOOK.
 
 BY PROVIDING A RANGE OF PEAK RIVER LEVEL PROBABILITIES..THE NWS IS
 IS CONTRIBUTING TO THE AREAS DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES THAT HELP
 WITH LONG RANGE FLOOD PLANNING AND RESPONSE READINESS.  THIS OUTLOOK
 IS A PART OF NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE/S AHPS (ADVANCED
 HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICES).
 
 THIS OUTLOOK WAS PRODUCED USING PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES
 FOR THE YEARS 1978 THROUGH 2002.
 
 . ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SOURCES…
 
 THE AHPS LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED
 NEAR THE END OF EACH MONTH. HOWEVER…SPRING FLOOD AND WATER
 RESOURCES OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED SEVERAL TIMES DURING THE CRITICAL
 SPRING MELT PERIOD…USUALLY ON THURSDAYS BEGINNING IN LATE
 FEBRUARY OR EARLY MARCH AND ENDING IN EARLY APRIL…DEPENDING ON
 THE SPRING FLOODING CONDITIONS.
 
 THIS OUTLOOK IS ALSO PRESENTED AS GRAPHS OF THE PROBABILITY OF STAGE
 EXCEEDANCE FOR THE FULL PERIOD AND FOR WEEKLY INTERVALS DURING THE
 PERIOD. THESE GRAPHS…TOGETHER WITH EXPLANATIONS THAT HELP IN
 INTERPRETING THEM ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE NWS BISMARCK AHPS WEB
 PAGE ON THE INTERNET AT:
 
         WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BISMARCK OR WEATHER.GOV/BIS
 
     THEN CLICK ON THE “RIVERS AND LAKES AHPS”ON THE TAB ABOVE THE
 MAP…OR ON THE LINK IN THE BLUE-LEFT-HAND BANNER.
 
 CURRENT RIVER CONDITIONS FOR ALL FORECAST POINTS WITHIN THE SOURIS
 RIVER BASIN ARE AVAILABLE ON OUR WEB SITE…AS WELL AS THE FORECASTS
 WHEN THE RIVER AT THE FORECAST POINT IS IN OR NEAR FLOOD.
 
 IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS…CONTACT THE NWS AT 701-250-4495.
 
 THE NEXT HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON 21 MARCH OR AS
 CONDITIONS WARRANT.