Bismarck, ND (KCSi-T.V. News Mar 21, 2013) — The National Weather Service has updated the flood outlook including the Sheyenne River Basin, for the next three months.

The forecast indicates that the risk of major flooding is low.

The outlook shows around a 50 percent chance for the Sheyenne River in Lisbon reaching 14 feet, with a 50 percent chance the Sheyenne will reach 12.5 feet in Valley City this spring.  The March 21, 2013 survey of the upper Sheyenne basin indicates 2 to 4 inches moisture content in the  snow pack.

The drawdown of Lake Ashtabula  presently has a water release of  500 cfs, with the drawdown goal an elevation of 1257.

The drawndown is expected to be completed by the end of March.

The pool elevation on March 22, 2013 was just above 1258 feet, with the normal  Lake Ashtabula summer elevation of 1266 feet.

The weather service says, it’s a good chance that overland flooding will occur, in the spring of 2013,along the Sheyenne River in Eddy County.

The report shows the James River Basin thus far has retained most of its snow, with very little melt having occurred.

In the northern most areas, very little progress has been made in the “ripening,” of the snowpack with conditions currently more similar to what is commonly seen in January and February, than what is normal for this close to April.

The Corps of Engineers expects this spring to be a high-flow year, but lower than the releases of 2009, 10, and 11.

Combined releases from Jamestown and Pipestem Dams are expected to be on the low end of between 750 cubic feet per second and 1,200 cfs.

The forecast depends on the rate of snowpack melt, and spring rains.

Early spring releases will be predominantly from Jamestown Dam, at about 650 cfs from Jamestown Dam and 100 cfs from Pipestem Dam until about June 1, 2013.

Then it’s anticipated that Jamestown Dam will be at summer operatal levels, and the release from Pipestem Dam may increased to about 350 cfs.

Army Corps of Engineers, Pipestem Dam, Manager, Bob Martin says if a fast spring melt, occurs, he does not expect flooding problems at this time, saying the projections are “well within the capacity of the dams.”