National Weather Service

Mar 22, 2019

…James River Basin…

The upper James River basin remains relatively insulated from the
warm weather and is not likely to see much runoff for several more
days. A robust snowpack below Jamestown is awaiting warm
temperatures which will eventually bring a high probability of
overland flooding and high water in all of the areas small
streams. Partially due to lower temperatures than those of points
farther west and partially due to a heavier snowpack, the melt
season is not yet in full swing for the James River basin of North
Dakota. Runoff may commence over the coming few days, but it will
most likely be next week before significant runoff begins.

Eastern North Dakota..

Favorable melt conditions have persisted through the past week as
temperatures have warmed above freezing during the day while
dropping back below freezing at night.

The end of the current work week and start of the weekend will bring
even warmer temperatures to the region as highs push into the 40s on
Saturday. These temperatures will continue to further ripen the
snowpack and even allow some water to begin ponding and moving into
local drainage. These conditions will most likely be seen across the
far southern Red River Valley and into portions of west central
Minnesota where the warmest temperatures are expected.

However, this degree of melting and initial moving of water is
expected to be short-lived as the region will experience another dip
in temperatures by Sunday and into the first part of the new work
week. Additionally, a weak weather system will skirt southern
portions of the region bringing only minor amounts of precipitation.
Full blown river flooding and extensive overland flooding is not
expected to begin quite yet as we head into the first half of next

After the brief cooldown at the beginning of next week, the region
will see temperatures increase once again mid to late week. High
temperatures in the 40s (possibly low 50s) will be likely region-
wide for the second half of the week with southern locations
possibly remaining above freezing even during the overnight hours.
Following the minor precipitation chances this weekend, quiet and
dry weather looks likely for the first half of next week before a
return to a more active pattern is possible.

The last probabilistic outlook issued on March 15th remains valid
for the time being. This outlook incorporates average weekly
precipitation amounts of roughly one-quarter of an inch and an
average temperature regime. Thus far, the precipitation and
temperature pattern has been in agreement with these values. Future
storm systems will continue to be monitored as we potentially turn
to a more active pattern by the end of next week.

Lastly, there will be no additional probabilistic outlooks issued
this spring as we get closer to widespread melting and the issuance
of deterministic forecasts. However, an updated thaw progress
statement will be issued on Monday, March 25th regarding the status
of the snowmelt, forecast weather conditions and the impacts on
future flood potential.