Twins – After the Twins began the 2024 season on a bafflingly inconsistent and streaky note — alternating between stretches of seeming like the best team in the Major Leagues and stretches of seeming like the worst — they finally found some stability ahead of the All-Star break, winning eight of their final 10 series of the first half before injuries caught up to them.
But make no mistake: This is a good team, and one that will be making another firm push for the playoffs in the second half.
At the All-Star break last season, Minnesota was one game below .500 (45-46), though it eventually broke the playoff streak. This year, the Twins will enter the second half at 12 games above .500 (54-42). What’s more: They’ve done this with very low-end outcomes from a host of key contributors.
Royce Lewis has been injured again, limited to 24 of the team’s 96 games — and he’ll enter the second half on the shelf again. The Twins barely got anything from three major expected offensive contributors (Matt Wallner, Alex Kirilloff and Edouard Julien) for much of the season.
On the pitching side, they’ve gotten undeniably low-end outcomes from Pablo López (5.11 ERA), Chris Paddack (4.99 ERA), Louie Varland (6.58 ERA) and Caleb Thielbar (5.64 ERA), with another mostly injured season from Brock Stewart (13 appearances).
But here they still are, armed with the third-best offense in the AL, per FanGraphs’ WAR (18.3), and the fourth-most wins in the Junior Circuit — though the health question looms, with Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton, Jose Miranda and Lewis all key question marks as they enter the second half.
One second-half goal: Win the division
Yes, the Guardians (58-37) have the best record in the AL, but Minnesota methodically closed the gap to 4 1/2 games at the break, which makes this less outlandish.
What’s at stake? The AL Central winner might have a shot at one of the two first-round byes this postseason, while the second-place finisher seems likely to face a strong AL East runner-up — whether it’s the Orioles or (gulp) the Yankees — in the best-of-three Wild Card Series.
Best to avoid that if possible — and with eight head-to-head matchups against Cleveland in the second half, the Twins hold direct control of this destiny if they can get healthy enough to take advantage of those opportunities.
Trade Deadline strategy: Buy, but perhaps not aggressively
After trading many solid prospects away and with another offseason of revenue uncertainty coming, would Minnesota get aggressive again?
It could use rotation help, but the Twins don’t like rental starters — and there’s no opening for next year, with this year’s starting five all still under contract. The offense has already been among MLB’s best while missing Lewis for massive chunks and with severe underperformance from two other top projected performers (Julien, Kirilloff).
The bullpen is an area of interest at any Trade Deadline, but it has already been bolstered by Jorge Alcala’s emergence and could already get Stewart and Justin Topa (and perhaps Varland) back. If nothing else, maybe there’s room for another lefty.
Key player: 3B Royce Lewis
Someone getting really hot can almost alone be enough to pave the path for a deep playoff run. Lewis has shown he can be that guy, crushing four homers in six games as part of his postseason debut last season.
His potential stardom and penchant for scalding hot streaks appear established. The Twins just need him to be (and stay) healthy, which was almost an issue last year when a late-September left hamstring strain put his playoff availability in question.
Prospect to watch: RHP David Festa
Festa’s first look at the Majors didn’t go as hoped, as the Twins’ No. 4 prospect (MLB No. 89) allowed 12 earned runs in 10 innings across two starts. Still, the rotation appears the biggest question mark for the potentially pitching-needy Twins. Festa has the stuff to be part of the solution if he can harness it, and he’s perhaps a bullpen option at minimum.
Minnesota has not been shy in exposing inexperienced prospects to the playoff environment, and Festa emerging as a legitimate option would go a long way.
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