NationalWeatherServicelogoBismarck (CSi) The National Weather Service in Bismarck has issued the flood outlook for the James River Basin for the time period of late March through late June 2014.

The reports states:

“THE FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR THE LOWER JAMES RIVER BASIN IS SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL GOING FORWARD…THIS IS LARGELY DUE TO THE RELATIVELY DRY SOILS IN THOSE AREAS. HOWEVER…MOST OF THE JAMES RIVER TRIBUTARIES ARE WITHIN JUST A FEW PERCENTAGE POINTS OF WHAT IS A NORMAL FLOOD RISK COMING OUT OF THE SPRING MELT.

IN GENERAL THOUGH…ONCE THE REGION FINALLY UNDERGOES A LONG ENOUGH PERIOD OF WARM WEATHER…ALL LOCATIONS WILL QUICKLY REVERT TO A NEAR NORMAL RISK OF FLOODING AS FROZEN SOILS THAW AND BEGIN TO DRY OUT.

…CURRENT CONDITIONS…MARCH 28, 2014…

SOILS ACROSS THE REGION REMAIN FAIRLY FROZEN WITH FROST DEPTHS EXCEEDING 49 INCHES AND REFLECTS ONLY MODEST IMPROVEMENT OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS. THESE FROZEN SOILS ARE STILL LIKELY TO PRODUCE WELL ABOVE NORMAL RUNOFF FROM ANY FAST MELTING SNOW OR HEAVY RAINS.

SNOWPACK ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER BASIN OF NORTH DAKOTA IS MOSTLY GONE WITH ONLY POCKETS REMAINING IN SHELTERED AREAS.

…WEATHER OUTLOOK…

THE NEAR TERM 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS SUGGEST A GREATER THAN NORMAL PROBABILITY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION. THE WEATHER FORECAST MODELS ALL SUGGEST SOME VARYING AMOUNTS OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE JAMES RIVER BASINS OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS OF MARCH.

LOOKING FARTHER OUT AT THE ONE AND THREE MONTH OUTLOOKS…A GREATER THAN NORMAL PROBABILITY EXISTS FOR COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH AN EQUAL CHANCE FOR BELOW NORMAL…NORMAL…OR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.”