NationalWeatherServicelogoBismarck (CSi) The National Weather Service has issued its Flood and Water Resources Outlook…January 2016

 This probablistic flood outlook is for the Missouri and James River basins of North Dakota and covers the period of late January through late April.

The report points out that there is still a long time remaining in the traditional snow accumulation season and the exact weather conditions during the spring melt are too far out for detailed forecasts.

That being said, the probabilities represent a well below normal risk

of wide spread high water problems during the spring of 2016.

Importantly, the published probabilities do not include risk

of ice jam related high water. Ice jams have proven to be difficult to predict with any degree of mathematical certainty.

…Current Conditions…

Most rivers and streams tend to be low and iced over, which is

normal for this time of year. Reservoirs are all within their

seasonally normal range. Frost thickness in the Bismarck area

is 28 inches, which is not extraordinary for this time of year.

Snow cover and the water content of the snowpack is less than

normal with around an inch of water equivalent near Jamestown, a

quarter of an inch near Bismarck and even less with the recent

warm weather as one goes west and north of Bismarck.

 

…Weather Outlook…

Winter has thus far been very consistent with the earlier

expectations associated with El Nino as November through late

January has seen well above normal temperatures and normal

to slightly below normal precipitation. This trend is

expected to continue as the one-month and three-month climate

outlooks portray a better than normal chance of below normal

precipitation and above normal temperatures. The current El Nino

is believed to have peaked in December and will transition to

a more neutral signal in late spring to early summer.

The next outlook will be issued toward the end of next month.