Bismarck (CSi) The National Weather Service has issued the Flood Outlook Highlights on April 29, 2016.

This outlook contains the probabilities for reaching flood stage

at the forecast points within the Missouri and James River basins

of North Dakota. Due to recent widespread and heavy rainfall, what

had been seasonally below normal probabilities for flooding are

now much closer to normal as recent rains now occupy a good

portion of the soil column’s capacity to hold water.

…Current Conditions…

Despite recent widespread and heavy rains, rivers tend to remain near

the low end of normal. A fairly dry soil profile coming into April

absorbed the vast majority of that rain. At this point, soil moisture

levels are much closer to normal levels and any heavy rains in the near

term should be expected to produce greater runoff.

…Weather Outlook…

The month of April has generally been very wet across the James and

Missouri River basins of North Dakota. In the near term 6-10 and 8 – 14

day outlooks the expectation is for above normal temperatures and a

below normal chance of precipitation. This transitions into an above

normal chance for above normal temperatures and an equal chance for

above normal, near normal, or below normal precipitation pattern in

the one and three month outlooks.

These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that

are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years

of climatological data…including current conditions of the

river…soil moisture…snow cover…and 30 to 90 day long-range

outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of

probabilities…the level of risk associated with long-range planning

decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part

of the National Weather Service’s advanced hydrologic prediction

service.